FanDuel Base — Strategy Report

Total Graded Bets

8,026

0 pending excluded

Overall Win Rate

50.9%

4,087W / 3,939L

Overall P&L

+£17,929

on £802,600 staked

Overall ROI

+2.23%

All sites combined

Best Strategy ROI

+14.3%

Shots On Goal Under (all sites)

✨ Headline Metrics — +ROI Combos Only same filter as Live Odds "Best Bets" (n ≥ 30, ROI > +2%)

Graded (combos)

3,635

35 qualifying combos

Win Rate (combos)

54.6%

1,985W / 1,650L

P&L (combos)

+£38,843

on £363,500 staked

ROI (combos)

+10.69%

vs all-bets +2.23%

Coverage

45%

3,635 of 8,026 graded bets matched

📈 Durable Core — edge holding as the sample grows each qualifying combo split in half by date · "recent half" = the larger, more-confident sample

Durable Core

combos holding · n=2,458

Core ROI (all-time)

+10.59%

across the durable core

Core ROI (recent half)

+12.80%

the holding signal · n=1,235

Fading / Building

8 / 9

not holding / too few bets

Site	Sport	Prop	Direction	Bets	ROI (all-time)	Early half	Recent half
DraftKings	NHL	Shots On Goal	Under	252	+14.6%	+14.4%	+14.9%
BetMGM	MLB	Strikeouts (P)	Under	231	+6.9%	+3.4%	+10.3%
Hard Rock Bet	NHL	Shots On Goal	Under	227	+16.1%	+21.2%	+11.0%
Pinnacle	NHL	Shots On Goal	Under	223	+16.9%	+19.4%	+14.5%
DraftKings	NBA	Points	Under	189	+9.0%	+4.8%	+13.0%
BetMGM	NHL	Shots On Goal	Under	181	+11.1%	+15.0%	+7.4%
BetMGM	NBA	Points	Under	165	+6.4%	−2.6%	+15.2%
Pinnacle	NBA	Points	Under	159	+4.4%	+4.3%	+4.4%
Pinnacle	NBA	Rebounds	Over	126	+5.1%	−3.2%	+13.5%
BetMGM	NBA	Rebounds	Over	93	+18.7%	+16.5%	+20.9%
BetParx	MLB	Outs (P)	Under	90	+3.5%	+0.3%	+6.7%
BetMGM	NBA	Reb+Ast	Under	90	+9.6%	+13.4%	+5.8%
DraftKings	NBA	Reb+Ast	Under	84	+4.5%	−2.3%	+11.4%
DraftKings	NBA	Pts+Reb	Under	77	+11.5%	+13.1%	+9.9%
BetRivers	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Over	73	+21.8%	+20.2%	+23.4%
BetParx	NBA	Points	Under	71	+6.9%	−3.0%	+16.6%
BetRivers	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Under	65	+10.9%	−3.2%	+24.6%
BetMGM	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Under	62	+4.2%	−17.7%	+26.1%

Durable = a qualifying combo (n ≥ 60) whose ROI stays positive in its recent half — the edge persists as the database grows, the hallmark of a real, structural mispricing rather than a lucky early run. Ranked by sample size (most evidence first).

⚠ Fading (edge not holding in recent half): BetMGM NBA Pts+Reb Under (−8.7% recent half); Pinnacle NBA Assists Under (−5.9% recent half); BetMGM NBA Pts+Ast Under (−3.6% recent half); Pinnacle NBA Assists Over (−3.3% recent half); BetMGM NBA Threes Over (−2.8% recent half); Pinnacle NBA Points Over (−1.7% recent half); Caesars NHL Shots On Goal Under (−1.0% recent half); BetParx MLB Strikeouts (P) Over (−0.0% recent half)

🧭 Reality check — the all-time "+ROI Combos" headline (+10.69%) is backward-looking and inflated by selection. An honest walk-forward (re-qualify each Monday on prior data only, bet the following week, 7 weeks) gives qualifying +1.83% (n=1,846) vs the bets the filter rejects +0.18% (n=3,069) — so the filter still edges its rejects by 1.65 pts. Use the Durable Core above as the signal; treat this line as the guardrail against over-reading the headline ROI.

📈 Cumulative P&L Over Time

Cumulative P&L at £100 stake. Blue = all bets in the report; amber = +ROI combos only. The +ROI series is defined post-hoc from this same dataset, so it's a what-if backtest of the "discipline" filter, not a predictive curve.

⚡ Latest Grading Run — P&L by Bookmaker Bets transitioned in this run · 29 Jun 2026, 09:08

Bookmaker	Bets	Wins	Losses	P&L	ROI
DraftKings	11	7	4	+£336	+30.5%
BetParx	5	4	1	+£270	+54.0%
BetRivers	2	1	1	+£4	+2.0%
Pinnacle	8	4	4	−£1	−0.1%
Caesars	2	0	2	−£200	−100.0%
BetMGM	10	4	6	−£266	−26.6%
TOTAL	38	20	18	+£143	+3.8%

✨ Latest Grading Run — +ROI Combos Only 35 qualifying combos (n ≥ 30, ROI > +2%)

Bookmaker	Bets	Wins	Losses	P&L	ROI
BetParx	1	1	0	+£88	+88.0%
BetMGM	1	0	1	−£100	−100.0%
TOTAL	2	1	1	−£12	−6.0%

📊 General Patterns Across All Sites

Direction	Bets	Win Rate	P&L	ROI	Verdict
Under	5,242	51.8%	+£17,751	+3.4%	✓ BET
Over	2,784	49.4%	+£178	+0.1%	~ MARGINAL

🏆 Performance by Sport

Sport	Bets	Win Rate	P&L	ROI	Verdict
🏀 NBA	4,423	51.6%	+£10,268	+2.3%	~ MARGINAL
🏒 NHL	1,096	54.5%	+£15,269	+13.9%	🔥 STRONG BET
⚾ MLB	2,507	48.2%	−£7,608	−3.0%	✗ AVOID

🎯 Performance by Prop Type + Direction

Prop Type	Direction	Bets	Win Rate	P&L	ROI	Verdict
Shots On Goal	Under	1,051	54.7%	+£14,979	+14.3%	🔥 STRONG BET
Rebounds	Over	340	55.9%	+£4,552	+13.4%	🔥 STRONG BET
Pts+Reb+Ast	Over	163	54.6%	+£1,693	+10.4%	🔥 STRONG BET
Pts+Reb	Under	139	56.1%	+£1,376	+9.9%	✓ BET
Pts+Reb+Ast	Under	232	53.4%	+£1,673	+7.2%	✓ BET
Shots On Goal	Over	45	48.9%	+£290	+6.4%	✓ BET
Assists	Under	423	53.9%	+£2,661	+6.3%	✓ BET
Threes	Over	218	50.9%	+£1,344	+6.2%	✓ BET
Points	Under	751	53.5%	+£4,625	+6.2%	✓ BET
Reb+Ast	Under	184	53.8%	+£986	+5.4%	✓ BET
Points	Over	255	51.0%	+£980	+3.8%	✓ BET
Pts+Ast	Under	123	51.2%	+£0	+0.0%	~ MARGINAL
Strikeouts (P)	Over	839	49.1%	−£345	−0.4%	✗ AVOID
Blocks	Under	97	50.5%	−£66	−0.7%	✗ AVOID
Threes	Under	248	53.6%	−£298	−1.2%	✗ AVOID
Strikeouts (P)	Under	894	48.8%	−£2,180	−2.4%	✗ AVOID
Outs (P)	Under	429	46.6%	−£1,899	−4.4%	✗ AVOID
Rebounds	Under	612	48.9%	−£3,335	−5.4%	✗ AVOID
Assists	Over	331	45.3%	−£2,374	−7.2%	✗ AVOID
Outs (P)	Over	345	46.4%	−£3,184	−9.2%	✗ AVOID
Pts+Ast	Over	42	45.2%	−£492	−11.7%	✗ AVOID
Steals	Under	59	45.8%	−£771	−13.1%	✗ AVOID
Pts+Reb	Over	41	43.9%	−£556	−13.6%	✗ AVOID
Reb+Ast	Over	119	42.9%	−£1,886	−15.8%	✗ AVOID

💰 Optimal Odds Range

Odds Range	Bets	Win Rate	P&L	ROI	Verdict
1.50 – 1.75	587	54.7%	−£4,890	−8.3%	✗ AVOID
1.75 – 2.00	3,156	54.5%	+£9,533	+3.0%	✓ BET
2.00 – 2.25	3,106	49.5%	+£11,492	+3.7%	✓ BET
2.25 – 2.50	1,027	45.3%	+£5,709	+5.6%	✓ BET
2.50 – 3.00	150	28.7%	−£3,915	−26.1%	✗ AVOID

💡 Key Strategy Insights

      🔥 Top Strategy: Shots On Goal Under (All Sites)
      54.7% win rate across 1,051 bets — highly significant sample
£+14,979 profit · ROI +14.3% on this bet type alone
The market consistently misprices this prop type
Check the site-by-site combos table for the best individual opportunities

    

      📌 Odds Sweet Spot: 1.75 – 2.00 & 2.00 – 2.25 & 2.25 – 2.50
      Profitable ROI observed in the 1.75 – 2.00 & 2.00 – 2.25 & 2.25 – 2.50 odds range
Below this range: win rates are high but margins are too thin for value
Above 2.50: win rates collapse dramatically — strongly negative ROI
Discipline on odds selection is as important as bet type selection

    

🚫 Avoid: Reb+Ast Over

Reb+Ast Over: 42.9% win rate · −15.8% ROI · −£1,886 loss
No site shows consistent profit on this category
The market prices this prop type very accurately — there is little or no edge
Avoid regardless of site or odds range

⚠️ Avoid: High Odds (1.50 – 1.75 and 2.50 – 3.00)

Odds 1.50 – 1.75: 54.7% win rate · -8.3% ROI
Odds 2.50 – 3.00: 28.7% win rate · -26.1% ROI
Stick firmly to the sweet spot odds range for optimal value

🏢 Site-by-Site Performance — +ROI Combos Only Bets / Win Rate / P&L / ROI / Rating reflect only the qualifying-combo subset (n ≥ 30, ROI > +2%). Best & Worst Strategy columns still scan all data so emerging combos remain visible.

Site	Bets	Win Rate	P&L	ROI	Best Strategy	Worst Strategy	Rating
BetRivers	262	58.4%	+£5,070	+19.4%	NBA Points Over +36.4% 44 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over +21.8% 73 bets NBA Assists Under +21.1% 38 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Under +10.9% 65 bets NBA Threes Under +9.4% 22 bets NBA Rebounds Over +8.6% 42 bets	NBA Assists Over −22.6% 38 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Under −3.8% 96 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
Hard Rock Bet	227	55.9%	+£3,654	+16.1%	NBA Points Under +22.9% 22 bets NHL Shots On Goal Under +16.1% 227 bets	—	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
DraftKings	751	55.8%	+£9,324	+12.4%	NBA Rebounds Over +35.1% 44 bets NBA Blocks Under +17.8% 24 bets NHL Shots On Goal Under +14.6% 252 bets MLB Outs (P) Over +12.6% 55 bets NBA Pts+Reb Under +11.5% 77 bets NBA Points Under +9.0% 189 bets NBA Threes Over +8.7% 50 bets NBA Reb+Ast Under +4.5% 84 bets	NBA Reb+Ast Over −20.7% 37 bets NBA Steals Under −15.9% 30 bets NBA Pts+Ast Under −12.2% 53 bets NBA Points Over −10.9% 38 bets NBA Assists Over −9.4% 71 bets NBA Rebounds Under −9.3% 136 bets MLB Outs (P) Under −7.4% 70 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Under −4.1% 323 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
Caesars	168	53.0%	+£1,850	+11.0%	NHL Shots On Goal Under +11.0% 168 bets	MLB Outs (P) Over −34.2% 27 bets NBA Rebounds Under −7.5% 20 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
BetMGM	1,058	54.6%	+£9,404	+8.9%	NBA Rebounds Over +18.7% 93 bets NHL Shots On Goal Under +11.1% 181 bets NBA Pts+Ast Under +9.7% 68 bets NBA Reb+Ast Under +9.6% 90 bets NBA Pts+Reb Under +8.1% 60 bets NBA Threes Over +6.9% 108 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Under +6.9% 231 bets NBA Points Under +6.4% 165 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Under +4.2% 62 bets	NBA Pts+Reb Over −25.6% 32 bets MLB Outs (P) Over −17.3% 31 bets NBA Blocks Under −15.0% 48 bets NBA Pts+Ast Over −14.0% 34 bets NBA Reb+Ast Over −12.6% 81 bets MLB Outs (P) Under −11.4% 100 bets NBA Threes Under −7.9% 101 bets NBA Points Over −5.3% 60 bets NBA Rebounds Under −4.8% 228 bets NBA Assists Over −3.0% 91 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Over −2.6% 183 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
Pinnacle	783	52.7%	+£6,626	+8.5%	NHL Shots On Goal Under +16.9% 223 bets NBA Assists Under +8.8% 90 bets NBA Rebounds Over +5.1% 126 bets NBA Points Under +4.4% 159 bets NBA Assists Over +4.0% 99 bets NBA Points Over +3.8% 86 bets	MLB Outs (P) Over −20.5% 124 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Under −11.6% 174 bets NBA Rebounds Under −4.7% 103 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
BetParx	386	53.4%	+£2,915	+7.6%	NBA Assists Under +22.2% 39 bets NBA Blocks Under +13.7% 24 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Under +12.6% 53 bets NBA Points Under +6.9% 71 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Over +5.9% 91 bets NBA Rebounds Under +4.3% 46 bets MLB Outs (P) Under +3.5% 90 bets NBA Threes Over +3.4% 22 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over +2.4% 26 bets	NBA Assists Over −18.6% 22 bets NBA Steals Under −12.4% 28 bets NBA Points Over −5.7% 24 bets NBA Rebounds Over −4.7% 20 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP

🏆 Top Specific Combinations (min 30 bets)

Site	Sport	Prop	Direction	Bets	Win Rate	P&L	ROI
BetRivers	NBA	Points	Over	44	65.9%	+£1,603	+36.4%
DraftKings	NBA	Rebounds	Over	44	65.9%	+£1,546	+35.1%
BetParx	NBA	Assists	Under	39	59.0%	+£867	+22.2%
BetRivers	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Over	73	58.9%	+£1,595	+21.8%
BetRivers	NBA	Assists	Under	38	60.5%	+£800	+21.1%
BetMGM	NBA	Rebounds	Over	93	59.1%	+£1,743	+18.7%
Pinnacle	NHL	Shots On Goal	Under	223	55.2%	+£3,772	+16.9%
Hard Rock Bet	NHL	Shots On Goal	Under	227	55.9%	+£3,654	+16.1%
DraftKings	NHL	Shots On Goal	Under	252	55.2%	+£3,686	+14.6%
DraftKings	MLB	Outs (P)	Over	55	58.2%	+£695	+12.6%
BetParx	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Under	53	54.7%	+£668	+12.6%
DraftKings	NBA	Pts+Reb	Under	77	57.1%	+£886	+11.5%
BetMGM	NHL	Shots On Goal	Under	181	53.6%	+£2,017	+11.1%
Caesars	NHL	Shots On Goal	Under	168	53.0%	+£1,850	+11.0%
BetRivers	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Under	65	53.8%	+£709	+10.9%
BetMGM	NBA	Pts+Ast	Under	68	55.9%	+£657	+9.7%
BetMGM	NBA	Reb+Ast	Under	90	55.6%	+£863	+9.6%
DraftKings	NBA	Points	Under	189	55.6%	+£1,693	+9.0%
Pinnacle	NBA	Assists	Under	90	54.4%	+£796	+8.8%
DraftKings	NBA	Threes	Over	50	50.0%	+£436	+8.7%

📋 Site-by-Site Strategy Summary

⭐ Hard Rock Bet

+7.7% ROI

348 bets · 52.9% win rate

NBA Points Under +22.9% (22 bets)

NHL Shots On Goal Under +16.1% (227 bets)

Strategy: Strong overall performance. Back best categories freely.

⭐ BetRivers

+5.2% ROI

783 bets · 52.1% win rate

NBA Points Over +36.4% (44 bets)

NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over +21.8% (73 bets)

NBA Assists Over — AVOID −22.6% (38 bets)

Strategy: Strong overall performance. Back best categories freely.

⭐ BetParx

+3.7% ROI

698 bets · 51.4% win rate

NBA Assists Under +22.2% (39 bets)

NBA Blocks Under +13.7% (24 bets)

NBA Assists Over — AVOID −18.6% (22 bets)

NBA Steals Under — AVOID −12.4% (28 bets)

NBA Points Over — AVOID −5.7% (24 bets)

Strategy: Strong overall performance. Back best categories freely.

⭐ Caesars

+2.4% ROI

347 bets · 50.1% win rate

NHL Shots On Goal Under +11.0% (168 bets)

NBA Points Under +0.8% (51 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Over — AVOID −34.2% (27 bets)

NBA Rebounds Under — AVOID −7.5% (20 bets)

Strategy: Selective play. Focus on proven prop types shown above.

⭐ DraftKings

+2.3% ROI

2,018 bets · 51.4% win rate

NBA Rebounds Over +35.1% (44 bets)

NBA Blocks Under +17.8% (24 bets)

NBA Reb+Ast Over — AVOID −20.7% (37 bets)

NBA Steals Under — AVOID −15.9% (30 bets)

NBA Pts+Ast Under — AVOID −12.2% (53 bets)

NBA Points Over — AVOID −10.9% (38 bets)

NBA Assists Over — AVOID −9.4% (71 bets)

NBA Rebounds Under — AVOID −9.3% (136 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Under — AVOID −7.4% (70 bets)

Strategy: Selective play. Focus on proven prop types shown above.

BetMGM

+0.9% ROI

2,240 bets · 51.0% win rate

NBA Rebounds Over +18.7% (93 bets)

NHL Shots On Goal Under +11.1% (181 bets)

NBA Pts+Reb Over — AVOID −25.6% (32 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Over — AVOID −17.3% (31 bets)

NBA Blocks Under — AVOID −15.0% (48 bets)

NBA Pts+Ast Over — AVOID −14.0% (34 bets)

NBA Reb+Ast Over — AVOID −12.6% (81 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Under — AVOID −11.4% (100 bets)

NBA Threes Under — AVOID −7.9% (101 bets)

NBA Points Over — AVOID −5.3% (60 bets)

Strategy: Selective play. Focus on proven prop types shown above.

Pinnacle

+0.7% ROI

1,592 bets · 49.1% win rate

NHL Shots On Goal Under +16.9% (223 bets)

NBA Assists Under +8.8% (90 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Over — AVOID −20.5% (124 bets)

MLB Strikeouts (P) Under — AVOID −11.6% (174 bets)

Strategy: Selective play. Focus on proven prop types shown above.

🚀 Priority Action Plan

      ✅ DO: The Core Edge Strategies
      NBA Points Over on BetRivers — 65.9% win rate, +36.4% ROI across 44 bets.
NBA Rebounds Over on DraftKings — 65.9% win rate, +35.1% ROI across 44 bets.
NBA Assists Under on BetParx — 59.0% win rate, +22.2% ROI across 39 bets.
NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over on BetRivers — 58.9% win rate, +21.8% ROI across 73 bets.
NHL Shots On Goal Under on Pinnacle — 55.2% win rate, +16.9% ROI across 223 bets.
Stick to odds 1.75 – 2.00 & 2.00 – 2.25 & 2.25 – 2.50 — the proven sweet spot. Higher odds have a strongly negative track record.

    

❌ DON'T: The Consistent Losers

NBA Pts+Reb Over (BetMGM worst: -25.6% ROI) — consistently underperforms across the dataset.
NBA Assists Over (BetRivers worst: -22.6% ROI) — consistently underperforms across the dataset.
NBA Reb+Ast Over (DraftKings worst: -20.7% ROI) — consistently underperforms across the dataset.
MLB Outs (P) Over (Pinnacle worst: -20.5% ROI) — consistently underperforms across the dataset.
Odds 1.50 – 1.75 and 2.50 – 3.00 — severely negative ROI. These destroy edge regardless of bet type.

⚠ Disclaimer: This analysis is based on a 76-day data window (14 Apr 2026–28 Jun 2026) covering 8,026 graded bets at £100 stake each. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly. All figures are in GBP (£).