FanDuel Base — Strategy Report

Total Graded Bets

10,988

0 pending excluded

Overall Win Rate

50.5%

5,551W / 5,437L

Overall P&L

+£20,527

on £1,098,800 staked

Overall ROI

+1.87%

All sites combined

Best Strategy ROI

+15.9%

Receptions Over (all sites)

✨ Headline Metrics — +ROI Combos Only same filter as Live Odds "Best Bets" (n ≥ 30, ROI > +2%)

Graded (combos)

4,354

45 qualifying combos

Win Rate (combos)

53.3%

2,320W / 2,034L

P&L (combos)

+£36,417

on £435,400 staked

ROI (combos)

+8.36%

vs all-bets +1.87%

Coverage

40%

4,354 of 10,988 graded bets matched

📈 Durable Core — edge holding as the sample grows each qualifying combo split in half by date · "recent half" = the larger, more-confident sample

Durable Core

combos holding · n=3,253

Core ROI (all-time)

+9.92%

across the durable core

Core ROI (recent half)

+13.10%

the holding signal · n=1,633

Fading / Building

9 / 14

not holding / too few bets

Site	Sport	Prop	Direction	Bets	ROI (all-time)	Early half	Recent half
BetMGM	MLB	Strikeouts (P)	Under	362	+4.6%	+7.7%	+1.4%
DraftKings	MLB	Strikeouts (P)	Over	284	+5.3%	−5.5%	+16.0%
DraftKings	NHL	Shots On Goal	Under	252	+14.6%	+14.4%	+14.9%
Hard Rock Bet	NHL	Shots On Goal	Under	227	+16.1%	+21.2%	+11.0%
Pinnacle	NHL	Shots On Goal	Under	223	+16.9%	+19.4%	+14.5%
DraftKings	NBA	Points	Under	189	+9.0%	+4.8%	+13.0%
BetMGM	NHL	Shots On Goal	Under	181	+11.1%	+15.0%	+7.4%
Kalshi	MLB	Strikeouts (P)	Over	169	+6.4%	+4.7%	+8.2%
BetMGM	NBA	Points	Under	165	+6.4%	−2.6%	+15.2%
Pinnacle	NBA	Points	Under	159	+4.4%	+4.3%	+4.4%
Polymarket	MLB	Strikeouts (P)	Over	155	+11.0%	+0.8%	+21.1%
Pinnacle	NBA	Rebounds	Over	126	+5.1%	−3.2%	+13.5%
BetMGM	NBA	Rebounds	Over	93	+18.7%	+16.5%	+20.9%
BetMGM	NBA	Reb+Ast	Under	90	+9.6%	+13.4%	+5.8%
DraftKings	NBA	Reb+Ast	Under	84	+4.5%	−2.3%	+11.4%
DraftKings	NBA	Pts+Reb	Under	77	+11.5%	+13.1%	+9.9%
Kalshi	MLB	Strikeouts (P)	Under	74	+11.4%	−0.3%	+23.2%
BetRivers	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Over	73	+21.8%	+20.2%	+23.4%
Kalshi	NFL	Receptions	Over	72	+18.6%	−0.3%	+37.6%
BetParx	NBA	Points	Under	71	+6.9%	−3.0%	+16.6%
BetRivers	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Under	65	+10.9%	−3.2%	+24.6%
BetMGM	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Under	62	+4.2%	−17.7%	+26.1%

Durable = a qualifying combo (n ≥ 60) whose ROI stays positive in its recent half — the edge persists as the database grows, the hallmark of a real, structural mispricing rather than a lucky early run. Ranked by sample size (most evidence first).

⚠ Fading (edge not holding in recent half): BetMGM NBA Pts+Reb Under (−8.7% recent half); Pinnacle NBA Assists Under (−5.9% recent half); BetMGM NBA Pts+Ast Under (−3.6% recent half); Pinnacle NBA Assists Over (−3.3% recent half); Pinnacle MLB Outs (P) Under (−3.1% recent half); BetMGM NBA Threes Over (−2.8% recent half); BetParx MLB Strikeouts (P) Over (−2.7% recent half); Pinnacle NBA Points Over (−1.7% recent half); Caesars NHL Shots On Goal Under (−1.0% recent half)

🧭 Reality check — the all-time "+ROI Combos" headline (+8.36%) is backward-looking and inflated by selection. An honest walk-forward (re-qualify each Monday on prior data only, bet the following week, 20 weeks) gives qualifying +0.99% (n=2,334) vs the bets the filter rejects +0.76% (n=5,543) — so the filter still edges its rejects by 0.23 pts. Use the Durable Core above as the signal; treat this line as the guardrail against over-reading the headline ROI.

📈 Cumulative P&L Over Time

Cumulative P&L at £100 stake. Blue = all bets in the report; amber = +ROI combos only. The +ROI series is defined post-hoc from this same dataset, so it's a what-if backtest of the "discipline" filter, not a predictive curve.

⚡ Latest Grading Run — P&L by Bookmaker Bets transitioned in this run · 28 Sep 2026, 09:20

Bookmaker	Bets	Wins	Losses	P&L	ROI
Kalshi	50	31	19	+£1,452	+29.0%
DraftKings	51	31	20	+£1,037	+20.3%
BetMGM	28	17	11	+£616	+22.0%
Polymarket Us	23	14	9	+£615	+26.7%
Pinnacle	49	26	23	+£517	+10.6%
BetParx	44	24	20	+£303	+6.9%
BetRivers	21	11	10	+£126	+6.0%
Polymarket	1	1	0	+£103	+103.1%
Caesars	2	1	1	+£2	+1.0%
Hard Rock Bet	13	6	7	−£87	−6.7%
TOTAL	282	162	120	+£4,684	+16.6%

✨ Latest Grading Run — +ROI Combos Only 45 qualifying combos (n ≥ 30, ROI > +2%)

Bookmaker	Bets	Wins	Losses	P&L	ROI
Pinnacle	13	7	6	+£202	+15.5%
BetMGM	1	1	0	+£105	+105.0%
Polymarket	1	1	0	+£103	+103.1%
DraftKings	2	1	1	+£20	+10.0%
Kalshi	4	2	2	−£2	−0.5%
TOTAL	21	12	9	+£428	+20.4%

📊 General Patterns Across All Sites

Direction	Bets	Win Rate	P&L	ROI	Verdict
Under	6,693	51.3%	+£17,504	+2.6%	~ MARGINAL
Over	4,295	49.4%	+£3,023	+0.7%	~ MARGINAL

🏆 Performance by Sport

Sport	Bets	Win Rate	P&L	ROI	Verdict
🏀 NBA	4,423	51.6%	+£10,268	+2.3%	~ MARGINAL
🏀 WNBA	111	51.4%	+£119	+1.1%	~ MARGINAL
🏒 NHL	1,096	54.5%	+£15,269	+13.9%	🔥 STRONG BET
⚾ MLB	4,732	48.2%	−£11,104	−2.3%	✗ AVOID
🏈 NFL	548	53.1%	+£5,250	+9.6%	✓ BET
🏈 NCAAF	78	55.1%	+£725	+9.3%	✓ BET

🎯 Performance by Prop Type + Direction

Prop Type	Direction	Bets	Win Rate	P&L	ROI	Verdict
Receiving Yards	Under	38	71.1%	+£1,620	+42.6%	🔥 STRONG BET
Receptions	Over	239	55.2%	+£3,808	+15.9%	🔥 STRONG BET
Shots On Goal	Under	1,051	54.7%	+£14,979	+14.3%	🔥 STRONG BET
Pts+Reb+Ast	Over	171	55.6%	+£2,083	+12.2%	🔥 STRONG BET
Rebounds	Over	350	55.1%	+£4,079	+11.7%	🔥 STRONG BET
Pts+Reb	Under	141	56.0%	+£1,368	+9.7%	✓ BET
Assists	Under	433	55.0%	+£3,726	+8.6%	✓ BET
Pts+Reb+Ast	Under	235	53.6%	+£1,758	+7.5%	✓ BET
Reb+Ast	Under	187	54.5%	+£1,254	+6.7%	✓ BET
Points	Under	759	53.8%	+£5,010	+6.6%	✓ BET
Shots On Goal	Over	45	48.9%	+£290	+6.4%	✓ BET
Threes	Over	224	50.9%	+£1,414	+6.3%	✓ BET
Receptions	Under	169	52.1%	+£1,034	+6.1%	✓ BET
Rushing Yards	Under	36	52.8%	+£113	+3.1%	✓ BET
Strikeouts (P)	Over	1,612	49.9%	+£3,782	+2.3%	~ MARGINAL
Points	Over	277	49.8%	+£371	+1.3%	~ MARGINAL
Passing TDs	Over	36	47.2%	+£40	+1.1%	~ MARGINAL
Pts+Ast	Under	127	51.2%	−£18	−0.1%	✗ AVOID
Blocks	Under	97	50.5%	−£66	−0.7%	✗ AVOID
Strikeouts (P)	Under	1,544	49.5%	−£1,546	−1.0%	✗ AVOID
Threes	Under	251	53.4%	−£377	−1.5%	✗ AVOID
Rebounds	Under	622	49.0%	−£3,307	−5.3%	✗ AVOID
Outs (P)	Under	881	45.2%	−£6,188	−7.0%	✗ AVOID
Assists	Over	345	44.3%	−£3,135	−9.1%	✗ AVOID
Outs (P)	Over	695	45.2%	−£7,153	−10.3%	✗ AVOID
Steals	Under	59	45.8%	−£771	−13.1%	✗ AVOID
Pts+Reb	Over	41	43.9%	−£556	−13.6%	✗ AVOID
Reb+Ast	Over	125	43.2%	−£1,910	−15.3%	✗ AVOID
Pts+Ast	Over	44	43.2%	−£692	−15.7%	✗ AVOID
Passing TDs	Under	55	41.8%	−£1,094	−19.9%	✗ AVOID

💰 Optimal Odds Range

Odds Range	Bets	Win Rate	P&L	ROI	Verdict
1.50 – 1.75	818	54.8%	−£6,619	−8.1%	✗ AVOID
1.75 – 2.00	4,092	54.5%	+£12,209	+3.0%	~ MARGINAL
2.00 – 2.25	4,251	49.1%	+£12,410	+2.9%	~ MARGINAL
2.25 – 2.50	1,535	44.6%	+£6,267	+4.1%	✓ BET
2.50 – 3.00	292	33.9%	−£3,741	−12.8%	✗ AVOID

💡 Key Strategy Insights

      🔥 Top Strategy: Receptions Over (All Sites)
      55.2% win rate across 239 bets — highly significant sample
£+3,808 profit · ROI +15.9% on this bet type alone
The market consistently misprices this prop type
Check the site-by-site combos table for the best individual opportunities

    

      📌 Odds Sweet Spot: 1.75 – 2.00 & 2.00 – 2.25 & 2.25 – 2.50
      Profitable ROI observed in the 1.75 – 2.00 & 2.00 – 2.25 & 2.25 – 2.50 odds range
Below this range: win rates are high but margins are too thin for value
Above 2.50: win rates collapse dramatically — strongly negative ROI
Discipline on odds selection is as important as bet type selection

    

🚫 Avoid: Passing TDs Under

Passing TDs Under: 41.8% win rate · −19.9% ROI · −£1,094 loss
No site shows consistent profit on this category
The market prices this prop type very accurately — there is little or no edge
Avoid regardless of site or odds range

⚠️ Avoid: High Odds (1.50 – 1.75 and 2.50 – 3.00)

Odds 1.50 – 1.75: 54.8% win rate · -8.1% ROI
Odds 2.50 – 3.00: 33.9% win rate · -12.8% ROI
Stick firmly to the sweet spot odds range for optimal value

🏢 Site-by-Site Performance — +ROI Combos Only Bets / Win Rate / P&L / ROI / Rating reflect only the qualifying-combo subset (n ≥ 30, ROI > +2%). Best & Worst Strategy columns still scan all data so emerging combos remain visible.

Site	Bets	Win Rate	P&L	ROI	Best Strategy	Worst Strategy	Rating
BetRivers	263	58.2%	+£4,970	+18.9%	NBA Points Over +36.4% 44 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over +21.8% 73 bets NBA Assists Under +21.1% 38 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Under +10.9% 65 bets NBA Threes Under +9.4% 22 bets NBA Rebounds Over +8.6% 42 bets	NBA Assists Over −22.6% 38 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Under −7.8% 141 bets MLB Outs (P) Over −2.9% 86 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
Polymarket	43	53.5%	+£738	+17.2%	MLB Strikeouts (P) Under +11.6% 20 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Over +11.0% 155 bets	—	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
Hard Rock Bet	227	55.9%	+£3,654	+16.1%	NBA Points Under +22.9% 22 bets NHL Shots On Goal Under +16.1% 227 bets	—	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
Caesars	191	52.9%	+£2,052	+10.7%	NHL Shots On Goal Under +11.0% 168 bets MLB Outs (P) Under +2.1% 36 bets	MLB Outs (P) Over −16.9% 42 bets NBA Rebounds Under −7.5% 20 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
DraftKings	942	53.7%	+£8,066	+8.6%	NBA Rebounds Over +35.1% 44 bets NBA Blocks Under +17.8% 24 bets NFL Receptions Over +14.8% 26 bets NHL Shots On Goal Under +14.6% 252 bets NBA Pts+Reb Under +11.5% 77 bets NBA Points Under +9.0% 189 bets NBA Threes Over +8.7% 50 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Over +5.3% 284 bets NBA Reb+Ast Under +4.5% 84 bets	NBA Reb+Ast Over −20.7% 37 bets NBA Steals Under −15.9% 30 bets NBA Pts+Ast Under −12.2% 53 bets NFL Receptions Under −11.4% 38 bets NBA Points Over −10.9% 38 bets MLB Outs (P) Under −10.0% 139 bets NBA Assists Over −9.4% 71 bets NBA Rebounds Under −9.3% 136 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
BetMGM	1,191	54.2%	+£9,269	+7.8%	NBA Rebounds Over +18.7% 93 bets NHL Shots On Goal Under +11.1% 181 bets NBA Pts+Ast Under +9.7% 68 bets NBA Reb+Ast Under +9.6% 90 bets NBA Pts+Reb Under +8.1% 60 bets NBA Threes Over +6.9% 108 bets NFL Receptions Under +6.5% 36 bets NBA Points Under +6.4% 165 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Under +4.6% 362 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Under +4.2% 62 bets	NBA Pts+Reb Over −25.6% 32 bets NBA Blocks Under −15.0% 48 bets NBA Pts+Ast Over −14.0% 34 bets NBA Reb+Ast Over −12.6% 81 bets MLB Outs (P) Under −11.7% 212 bets MLB Outs (P) Over −11.5% 91 bets NBA Threes Under −7.9% 101 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Over −6.0% 292 bets NBA Points Over −5.3% 60 bets NBA Rebounds Under −4.8% 228 bets NBA Assists Over −3.0% 91 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
BetParx	345	53.0%	+£2,396	+6.9%	NFL Receptions Over +30.8% 24 bets NFL Receptions Under +24.9% 21 bets NBA Assists Under +22.2% 39 bets NBA Blocks Under +13.7% 24 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Under +12.6% 53 bets NBA Points Under +6.9% 71 bets NBA Rebounds Under +4.3% 46 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Over +3.4% 130 bets NBA Threes Over +3.4% 22 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over +2.4% 26 bets	NBA Assists Over −18.6% 22 bets NBA Steals Under −12.4% 28 bets MLB Outs (P) Under −7.8% 212 bets NBA Points Over −5.7% 24 bets MLB Outs (P) Over −5.5% 81 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Under −5.0% 111 bets NBA Rebounds Over −4.7% 20 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
Pinnacle	961	51.6%	+£6,140	+6.4%	NFL Receiving Yards Under +35.0% 30 bets NFL Receptions Over +17.2% 41 bets NHL Shots On Goal Under +16.9% 223 bets NBA Assists Under +8.8% 90 bets NFL Receptions Under +5.6% 51 bets NBA Rebounds Over +5.1% 126 bets NBA Points Under +4.4% 159 bets NBA Assists Over +4.0% 99 bets NBA Points Over +3.8% 86 bets MLB Outs (P) Under +2.5% 219 bets	MLB Outs (P) Over −19.8% 181 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Under −11.6% 264 bets NBA Rebounds Under −4.7% 103 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
Bet365	7	42.9%	−£10	−1.4%	MLB Strikeouts (P) Over +4.9% 40 bets	—	~ SELECTIVE
Kalshi	184	45.1%	−£858	−4.7%	NFL Receptions Over +18.6% 72 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Under +11.4% 74 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Over +6.4% 169 bets	MLB Outs (P) Under −17.7% 53 bets MLB Outs (P) Over −9.3% 120 bets	⚠ SELECTIVE ONLY

🏆 Top Specific Combinations (min 30 bets)

Site	Sport	Prop	Direction	Bets	Win Rate	P&L	ROI
BetRivers	NBA	Points	Over	44	65.9%	+£1,603	+36.4%
DraftKings	NBA	Rebounds	Over	44	65.9%	+£1,546	+35.1%
Pinnacle	NFL	Receiving Yards	Under	30	66.7%	+£1,051	+35.0%
BetParx	NBA	Assists	Under	39	59.0%	+£867	+22.2%
BetRivers	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Over	73	58.9%	+£1,595	+21.8%
BetRivers	NBA	Assists	Under	38	60.5%	+£800	+21.1%
BetMGM	NBA	Rebounds	Over	93	59.1%	+£1,743	+18.7%
Kalshi	NFL	Receptions	Over	72	55.6%	+£1,343	+18.6%
Pinnacle	NFL	Receptions	Over	41	56.1%	+£707	+17.2%
Pinnacle	NHL	Shots On Goal	Under	223	55.2%	+£3,772	+16.9%
Hard Rock Bet	NHL	Shots On Goal	Under	227	55.9%	+£3,654	+16.1%
DraftKings	NHL	Shots On Goal	Under	252	55.2%	+£3,686	+14.6%
BetParx	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Under	53	54.7%	+£668	+12.6%
DraftKings	NBA	Pts+Reb	Under	77	57.1%	+£886	+11.5%
Kalshi	MLB	Strikeouts (P)	Under	74	54.1%	+£846	+11.4%
BetMGM	NHL	Shots On Goal	Under	181	53.6%	+£2,017	+11.1%
Polymarket	MLB	Strikeouts (P)	Over	155	52.3%	+£1,708	+11.0%
Caesars	NHL	Shots On Goal	Under	168	53.0%	+£1,850	+11.0%
BetRivers	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Under	65	53.8%	+£709	+10.9%
BetMGM	NBA	Pts+Ast	Under	68	55.9%	+£657	+9.7%

📋 Site-by-Site Strategy Summary

⭐ Polymarket

+11.1% ROI

175 bets · 52.6% win rate

MLB Strikeouts (P) Under +11.6% (20 bets)

MLB Strikeouts (P) Over +11.0% (155 bets)

Strategy: Strong overall performance. Back best categories freely.

⭐ Hard Rock Bet

+6.2% ROI

427 bets · 52.5% win rate

NBA Points Under +22.9% (22 bets)

NHL Shots On Goal Under +16.1% (227 bets)

Strategy: Strong overall performance. Back best categories freely.

⭐ Caesars

+3.0% ROI

385 bets · 50.1% win rate

NHL Shots On Goal Under +11.0% (168 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Under +2.1% (36 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Over — AVOID −16.9% (42 bets)

NBA Rebounds Under — AVOID −7.5% (20 bets)

Strategy: Strong overall performance. Back best categories freely.

⭐ DraftKings

+2.8% ROI

2,560 bets · 51.6% win rate

NBA Rebounds Over +35.1% (44 bets)

NBA Blocks Under +17.8% (24 bets)

NBA Reb+Ast Over — AVOID −20.7% (37 bets)

NBA Steals Under — AVOID −15.9% (30 bets)

NBA Pts+Ast Under — AVOID −12.2% (53 bets)

NFL Receptions Under — AVOID −11.4% (38 bets)

NBA Points Over — AVOID −10.9% (38 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Under — AVOID −10.0% (139 bets)

NBA Assists Over — AVOID −9.4% (71 bets)

NBA Rebounds Under — AVOID −9.3% (136 bets)

Strategy: Selective play. Focus on proven prop types shown above.

⭐ BetRivers

+2.7% ROI

946 bets · 51.1% win rate

NBA Points Over +36.4% (44 bets)

NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over +21.8% (73 bets)

NBA Assists Over — AVOID −22.6% (38 bets)

MLB Strikeouts (P) Under — AVOID −7.8% (141 bets)

Strategy: Selective play. Focus on proven prop types shown above.

⭐ Kalshi

+2.2% ROI

520 bets · 48.1% win rate

NFL Receptions Over +18.6% (72 bets)

MLB Strikeouts (P) Under +11.4% (74 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Under — AVOID −17.7% (53 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Over — AVOID −9.3% (120 bets)

Strategy: Selective play. Focus on proven prop types shown above.

⭐ Pinnacle

+1.7% ROI

2,145 bets · 49.5% win rate

NFL Receiving Yards Under +35.0% (30 bets)

NFL Receptions Over +17.2% (41 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Over — AVOID −19.8% (181 bets)

MLB Strikeouts (P) Under — AVOID −11.6% (264 bets)

Strategy: Selective play. Focus on proven prop types shown above.

BetParx

+0.1% ROI

1,030 bets · 49.8% win rate

NFL Receptions Over +30.8% (24 bets)

NFL Receptions Under +24.9% (21 bets)

NBA Assists Over — AVOID −18.6% (22 bets)

NBA Steals Under — AVOID −12.4% (28 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Under — AVOID −7.8% (212 bets)

NBA Points Over — AVOID −5.7% (24 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Over — AVOID −5.5% (81 bets)

MLB Strikeouts (P) Under — AVOID −5.0% (111 bets)

Strategy: Selective play. Focus on proven prop types shown above.

BetMGM

−0.2% ROI

2,737 bets · 50.3% win rate

NBA Rebounds Over +18.7% (93 bets)

NHL Shots On Goal Under +11.1% (181 bets)

NBA Pts+Reb Over — AVOID −25.6% (32 bets)

NBA Blocks Under — AVOID −15.0% (48 bets)

NBA Pts+Ast Over — AVOID −14.0% (34 bets)

NBA Reb+Ast Over — AVOID −12.6% (81 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Under — AVOID −11.7% (212 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Over — AVOID −11.5% (91 bets)

NBA Threes Under — AVOID −7.9% (101 bets)

MLB Strikeouts (P) Over — AVOID −6.0% (292 bets)

NBA Points Over — AVOID −5.3% (60 bets)

Strategy: Below breakeven overall. Only play the highlighted edges.

🚀 Priority Action Plan

      ✅ DO: The Core Edge Strategies
      NBA Points Over on BetRivers — 65.9% win rate, +36.4% ROI across 44 bets.
NBA Rebounds Over on DraftKings — 65.9% win rate, +35.1% ROI across 44 bets.
NFL Receiving Yards Under on Pinnacle — 66.7% win rate, +35.0% ROI across 30 bets.
NBA Assists Under on BetParx — 59.0% win rate, +22.2% ROI across 39 bets.
NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over on BetRivers — 58.9% win rate, +21.8% ROI across 73 bets.
Stick to odds 1.75 – 2.00 & 2.00 – 2.25 & 2.25 – 2.50 — the proven sweet spot. Higher odds have a strongly negative track record.

    

❌ DON'T: The Consistent Losers

NBA Pts+Reb Over (BetMGM worst: -25.6% ROI) — consistently underperforms across the dataset.
NBA Assists Over (BetRivers worst: -22.6% ROI) — consistently underperforms across the dataset.
NBA Reb+Ast Over (DraftKings worst: -20.7% ROI) — consistently underperforms across the dataset.
MLB Outs (P) Over (Pinnacle worst: -19.8% ROI) — consistently underperforms across the dataset.
MLB Outs (P) Under (Kalshi worst: -17.7% ROI) — consistently underperforms across the dataset.
Odds 1.50 – 1.75 and 2.50 – 3.00 — severely negative ROI. These destroy edge regardless of bet type.

⚠ Disclaimer: This analysis is based on a 167-day data window (14 Apr 2026–27 Sep 2026) covering 10,988 graded bets at £100 stake each. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly. All figures are in GBP (£).