FanDuel Base — Strategy Report

Total Graded Bets

9,264

0 pending excluded

Overall Win Rate

50.4%

4,673W / 4,591L

Overall P&L

+£12,679

on £926,400 staked

Overall ROI

+1.37%

All sites combined

Best Strategy ROI

+14.3%

Shots On Goal Under (all sites)

✨ Headline Metrics — +ROI Combos Only same filter as Live Odds "Best Bets" (n ≥ 30, ROI > +2%)

Graded (combos)

3,870

37 qualifying combos

Win Rate (combos)

54.0%

2,090W / 1,780L

P&L (combos)

+£36,862

on £387,000 staked

ROI (combos)

+9.52%

vs all-bets +1.37%

Coverage

42%

3,870 of 9,264 graded bets matched

📈 Durable Core — edge holding as the sample grows each qualifying combo split in half by date · "recent half" = the larger, more-confident sample

Durable Core

combos holding · n=2,640

Core ROI (all-time)

+10.35%

across the durable core

Core ROI (recent half)

+12.05%

the holding signal · n=1,326

Fading / Building

8 / 10

not holding / too few bets

Site	Sport	Prop	Direction	Bets	ROI (all-time)	Early half	Recent half
BetMGM	MLB	Strikeouts (P)	Under	304	+5.7%	+2.7%	+8.7%
DraftKings	NHL	Shots On Goal	Under	252	+14.6%	+14.4%	+14.9%
Hard Rock Bet	NHL	Shots On Goal	Under	227	+16.1%	+21.2%	+11.0%
Pinnacle	NHL	Shots On Goal	Under	223	+16.9%	+19.4%	+14.5%
DraftKings	NBA	Points	Under	189	+9.0%	+4.8%	+13.0%
BetMGM	NHL	Shots On Goal	Under	181	+11.1%	+15.0%	+7.4%
BetMGM	NBA	Points	Under	165	+6.4%	−2.6%	+15.2%
Pinnacle	NBA	Points	Under	159	+4.4%	+4.3%	+4.4%
Pinnacle	NBA	Rebounds	Over	126	+5.1%	−3.2%	+13.5%
BetParx	MLB	Strikeouts (P)	Over	125	+4.3%	+7.6%	+1.1%
BetMGM	NBA	Rebounds	Over	93	+18.7%	+16.5%	+20.9%
BetMGM	NBA	Reb+Ast	Under	90	+9.6%	+13.4%	+5.8%
DraftKings	NBA	Reb+Ast	Under	84	+4.5%	−2.3%	+11.4%
DraftKings	NBA	Pts+Reb	Under	77	+11.5%	+13.1%	+9.9%
DraftKings	MLB	Outs (P)	Over	74	+12.4%	+17.1%	+7.7%
BetRivers	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Over	73	+21.8%	+20.2%	+23.4%
BetParx	NBA	Points	Under	71	+6.9%	−3.0%	+16.6%
BetRivers	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Under	65	+10.9%	−3.2%	+24.6%
BetMGM	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Under	62	+4.2%	−17.7%	+26.1%

Durable = a qualifying combo (n ≥ 60) whose ROI stays positive in its recent half — the edge persists as the database grows, the hallmark of a real, structural mispricing rather than a lucky early run. Ranked by sample size (most evidence first).

⚠ Fading (edge not holding in recent half): BetMGM NBA Pts+Reb Under (−8.7% recent half); Pinnacle NBA Assists Under (−5.9% recent half); BetMGM NBA Pts+Ast Under (−3.6% recent half); Pinnacle MLB Outs (P) Under (−3.3% recent half); Pinnacle NBA Assists Over (−3.3% recent half); BetMGM NBA Threes Over (−2.8% recent half); Pinnacle NBA Points Over (−1.7% recent half); Caesars NHL Shots On Goal Under (−1.0% recent half)

🧭 Reality check — the all-time "+ROI Combos" headline (+9.52%) is backward-looking and inflated by selection. An honest walk-forward (re-qualify each Monday on prior data only, bet the following week, 14 weeks) gives qualifying +0.89% (n=2,022) vs the bets the filter rejects −0.75% (n=4,131) — so the filter still edges its rejects by 1.64 pts. Use the Durable Core above as the signal; treat this line as the guardrail against over-reading the headline ROI.

📈 Cumulative P&L Over Time

Cumulative P&L at £100 stake. Blue = all bets in the report; amber = +ROI combos only. The +ROI series is defined post-hoc from this same dataset, so it's a what-if backtest of the "discipline" filter, not a predictive curve.

⚡ Latest Grading Run — P&L by Bookmaker Bets transitioned in this run · 13 Aug 2026, 10:18

Bookmaker	Bets	Wins	Losses	P&L	ROI
BetRivers	2	2	0	+£157	+78.5%
DraftKings	2	1	1	−£24	−12.0%
BetMGM	1	0	1	−£100	−100.0%
Polymarket	6	2	4	−£204	−34.0%
Kalshi	11	4	7	−£235	−21.3%
BetParx	6	2	4	−£243	−40.5%
TOTAL	28	11	17	−£649	−23.2%

✨ Latest Grading Run — +ROI Combos Only 37 qualifying combos (n ≥ 30, ROI > +2%)

Bookmaker	Bets	Wins	Losses	P&L	ROI
DraftKings	1	1	0	+£76	+76.0%
Kalshi	2	0	2	−£200	−100.0%
TOTAL	3	1	2	−£124	−41.3%

📊 General Patterns Across All Sites

Direction	Bets	Win Rate	P&L	ROI	Verdict
Under	5,891	51.3%	+£15,047	+2.6%	~ MARGINAL
Over	3,373	49.0%	−£2,368	−0.7%	✗ AVOID

🏆 Performance by Sport

Sport	Bets	Win Rate	P&L	ROI	Verdict
🏀 NBA	4,423	51.6%	+£10,268	+2.3%	~ MARGINAL
🏒 NHL	1,096	54.5%	+£15,269	+13.9%	🔥 STRONG BET
⚾ MLB	3,745	47.9%	−£12,858	−3.4%	✗ AVOID

🎯 Performance by Prop Type + Direction

Prop Type	Direction	Bets	Win Rate	P&L	ROI	Verdict
Shots On Goal	Under	1,051	54.7%	+£14,979	+14.3%	🔥 STRONG BET
Rebounds	Over	340	55.9%	+£4,552	+13.4%	🔥 STRONG BET
Pts+Reb+Ast	Over	163	54.6%	+£1,693	+10.4%	🔥 STRONG BET
Pts+Reb	Under	139	56.1%	+£1,376	+9.9%	✓ BET
Pts+Reb+Ast	Under	232	53.4%	+£1,673	+7.2%	✓ BET
Shots On Goal	Over	45	48.9%	+£290	+6.4%	✓ BET
Assists	Under	423	53.9%	+£2,661	+6.3%	✓ BET
Threes	Over	218	50.9%	+£1,344	+6.2%	✓ BET
Points	Under	751	53.5%	+£4,625	+6.2%	✓ BET
Reb+Ast	Under	184	53.8%	+£986	+5.4%	✓ BET
Points	Over	255	51.0%	+£980	+3.8%	✓ BET
Pts+Ast	Under	123	51.2%	+£0	+0.0%	~ MARGINAL
Blocks	Under	97	50.5%	−£66	−0.7%	✗ AVOID
Threes	Under	248	53.6%	−£298	−1.2%	✗ AVOID
Strikeouts (P)	Under	1,299	49.0%	−£2,765	−2.1%	✗ AVOID
Strikeouts (P)	Over	1,235	48.2%	−£2,795	−2.3%	✗ AVOID
Rebounds	Under	612	48.9%	−£3,335	−5.4%	✗ AVOID
Outs (P)	Under	673	45.6%	−£4,019	−6.0%	✗ AVOID
Outs (P)	Over	538	47.6%	−£3,280	−6.1%	✗ AVOID
Assists	Over	331	45.3%	−£2,374	−7.2%	✗ AVOID
Pts+Ast	Over	42	45.2%	−£492	−11.7%	✗ AVOID
Steals	Under	59	45.8%	−£771	−13.1%	✗ AVOID
Pts+Reb	Over	41	43.9%	−£556	−13.6%	✗ AVOID
Reb+Ast	Over	119	42.9%	−£1,886	−15.8%	✗ AVOID

💰 Optimal Odds Range

Odds Range	Bets	Win Rate	P&L	ROI	Verdict
1.50 – 1.75	684	53.5%	−£6,949	−10.2%	✗ AVOID
1.75 – 2.00	3,612	54.4%	+£9,926	+2.7%	~ MARGINAL
2.00 – 2.25	3,550	48.9%	+£8,686	+2.4%	~ MARGINAL
2.25 – 2.50	1,225	44.5%	+£4,638	+3.8%	✓ BET
2.50 – 3.00	193	31.6%	−£3,623	−18.8%	✗ AVOID

💡 Key Strategy Insights

      🔥 Top Strategy: Shots On Goal Under (All Sites)
      54.7% win rate across 1,051 bets — highly significant sample
£+14,979 profit · ROI +14.3% on this bet type alone
The market consistently misprices this prop type
Check the site-by-site combos table for the best individual opportunities

    

      📌 Odds Sweet Spot: 1.75 – 2.00 & 2.00 – 2.25 & 2.25 – 2.50
      Profitable ROI observed in the 1.75 – 2.00 & 2.00 – 2.25 & 2.25 – 2.50 odds range
Below this range: win rates are high but margins are too thin for value
Above 2.50: win rates collapse dramatically — strongly negative ROI
Discipline on odds selection is as important as bet type selection

    

🚫 Avoid: Reb+Ast Over

Reb+Ast Over: 42.9% win rate · −15.8% ROI · −£1,886 loss
No site shows consistent profit on this category
The market prices this prop type very accurately — there is little or no edge
Avoid regardless of site or odds range

⚠️ Avoid: High Odds (1.50 – 1.75 and 2.50 – 3.00)

Odds 1.50 – 1.75: 53.5% win rate · -10.2% ROI
Odds 2.50 – 3.00: 31.6% win rate · -18.8% ROI
Stick firmly to the sweet spot odds range for optimal value

🏢 Site-by-Site Performance — +ROI Combos Only Bets / Win Rate / P&L / ROI / Rating reflect only the qualifying-combo subset (n ≥ 30, ROI > +2%). Best & Worst Strategy columns still scan all data so emerging combos remain visible.

Site	Bets	Win Rate	P&L	ROI	Best Strategy	Worst Strategy	Rating
BetRivers	263	58.2%	+£4,970	+18.9%	NBA Points Over +36.4% 44 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over +21.8% 73 bets NBA Assists Under +21.1% 38 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Under +10.9% 65 bets NBA Threes Under +9.4% 22 bets NBA Rebounds Over +8.6% 42 bets	NBA Assists Over −22.6% 38 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Under −6.4% 135 bets MLB Outs (P) Over −6.1% 77 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
Hard Rock Bet	227	55.9%	+£3,654	+16.1%	NBA Points Under +22.9% 22 bets NHL Shots On Goal Under +16.1% 227 bets	—	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
DraftKings	773	55.6%	+£9,249	+12.0%	NBA Rebounds Over +35.1% 44 bets NBA Blocks Under +17.8% 24 bets NHL Shots On Goal Under +14.6% 252 bets MLB Outs (P) Over +12.4% 74 bets NBA Pts+Reb Under +11.5% 77 bets NBA Points Under +9.0% 189 bets NBA Threes Over +8.7% 50 bets NBA Reb+Ast Under +4.5% 84 bets	NBA Reb+Ast Over −20.7% 37 bets NBA Steals Under −15.9% 30 bets NBA Pts+Ast Under −12.2% 53 bets NBA Points Over −10.9% 38 bets NBA Assists Over −9.4% 71 bets NBA Rebounds Under −9.3% 136 bets MLB Outs (P) Under −6.2% 100 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
Caesars	185	53.0%	+£2,071	+11.2%	NHL Shots On Goal Under +11.0% 168 bets MLB Outs (P) Under +3.1% 30 bets	MLB Outs (P) Over −18.4% 37 bets NBA Rebounds Under −7.5% 20 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
BetMGM	1,133	54.4%	+£9,343	+8.2%	NBA Rebounds Over +18.7% 93 bets NHL Shots On Goal Under +11.1% 181 bets NBA Pts+Ast Under +9.7% 68 bets NBA Reb+Ast Under +9.6% 90 bets NBA Pts+Reb Under +8.1% 60 bets NBA Threes Over +6.9% 108 bets NBA Points Under +6.4% 165 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Under +5.7% 304 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Under +4.2% 62 bets	NBA Pts+Reb Over −25.6% 32 bets NBA Blocks Under −15.0% 48 bets NBA Pts+Ast Over −14.0% 34 bets MLB Outs (P) Under −13.5% 163 bets NBA Reb+Ast Over −12.6% 81 bets NBA Threes Under −7.9% 101 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Over −7.3% 260 bets NBA Points Over −5.3% 60 bets NBA Rebounds Under −4.8% 228 bets MLB Outs (P) Over −4.3% 61 bets NBA Assists Over −3.0% 91 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
BetParx	340	53.2%	+£2,494	+7.3%	NBA Assists Under +22.2% 39 bets NBA Blocks Under +13.7% 24 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Under +12.6% 53 bets NBA Points Under +6.9% 71 bets NBA Rebounds Under +4.3% 46 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Over +4.3% 125 bets NBA Threes Over +3.4% 22 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over +2.4% 26 bets	NBA Assists Over −18.6% 22 bets NBA Steals Under −12.4% 28 bets MLB Outs (P) Over −9.2% 72 bets MLB Outs (P) Under −8.6% 156 bets NBA Points Over −5.7% 24 bets NBA Rebounds Over −4.7% 20 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Under −3.1% 105 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
Pinnacle	932	51.7%	+£6,118	+6.6%	NHL Shots On Goal Under +16.9% 223 bets NBA Assists Under +8.8% 90 bets NBA Rebounds Over +5.1% 126 bets NBA Points Under +4.4% 159 bets NBA Assists Over +4.0% 99 bets NBA Points Over +3.8% 86 bets MLB Outs (P) Under +2.5% 207 bets	MLB Outs (P) Over −16.1% 173 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Under −12.5% 246 bets NBA Rebounds Under −4.7% 103 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
Kalshi	16	18.8%	−£937	−58.6%	MLB Outs (P) Over +13.3% 38 bets	MLB Strikeouts (P) Over −5.1% 47 bets	✗ AVOID

🏆 Top Specific Combinations (min 30 bets)

Site	Sport	Prop	Direction	Bets	Win Rate	P&L	ROI
BetRivers	NBA	Points	Over	44	65.9%	+£1,603	+36.4%
DraftKings	NBA	Rebounds	Over	44	65.9%	+£1,546	+35.1%
BetParx	NBA	Assists	Under	39	59.0%	+£867	+22.2%
BetRivers	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Over	73	58.9%	+£1,595	+21.8%
BetRivers	NBA	Assists	Under	38	60.5%	+£800	+21.1%
BetMGM	NBA	Rebounds	Over	93	59.1%	+£1,743	+18.7%
Pinnacle	NHL	Shots On Goal	Under	223	55.2%	+£3,772	+16.9%
Hard Rock Bet	NHL	Shots On Goal	Under	227	55.9%	+£3,654	+16.1%
DraftKings	NHL	Shots On Goal	Under	252	55.2%	+£3,686	+14.6%
Kalshi	MLB	Outs (P)	Over	38	52.6%	+£504	+13.3%
BetParx	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Under	53	54.7%	+£668	+12.6%
DraftKings	MLB	Outs (P)	Over	74	58.1%	+£920	+12.4%
DraftKings	NBA	Pts+Reb	Under	77	57.1%	+£886	+11.5%
BetMGM	NHL	Shots On Goal	Under	181	53.6%	+£2,017	+11.1%
Caesars	NHL	Shots On Goal	Under	168	53.0%	+£1,850	+11.0%
BetRivers	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Under	65	53.8%	+£709	+10.9%
BetMGM	NBA	Pts+Ast	Under	68	55.9%	+£657	+9.7%
BetMGM	NBA	Reb+Ast	Under	90	55.6%	+£863	+9.6%
DraftKings	NBA	Points	Under	189	55.6%	+£1,693	+9.0%
Pinnacle	NBA	Assists	Under	90	54.4%	+£796	+8.8%

📋 Site-by-Site Strategy Summary

⭐ Hard Rock Bet

+7.7% ROI

354 bets · 52.8% win rate

NBA Points Under +22.9% (22 bets)

NHL Shots On Goal Under +16.1% (227 bets)

Strategy: Strong overall performance. Back best categories freely.

⭐ BetRivers

+3.5% ROI

879 bets · 51.4% win rate

NBA Points Over +36.4% (44 bets)

NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over +21.8% (73 bets)

NBA Assists Over — AVOID −22.6% (38 bets)

MLB Strikeouts (P) Under — AVOID −6.4% (135 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Over — AVOID −6.1% (77 bets)

Strategy: Strong overall performance. Back best categories freely.

⭐ Kalshi

+3.3% ROI

111 bets · 48.6% win rate

MLB Outs (P) Over +13.3% (38 bets)

MLB Strikeouts (P) Over −5.1% (47 bets)

MLB Strikeouts (P) Over — AVOID −5.1% (47 bets)

Strategy: Strong overall performance. Back best categories freely.

⭐ Caesars

+3.1% ROI

368 bets · 50.3% win rate

NHL Shots On Goal Under +11.0% (168 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Under +3.1% (30 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Over — AVOID −18.4% (37 bets)

NBA Rebounds Under — AVOID −7.5% (20 bets)

Strategy: Strong overall performance. Back best categories freely.

⭐ DraftKings

+2.5% ROI

2,273 bets · 51.5% win rate

NBA Rebounds Over +35.1% (44 bets)

NBA Blocks Under +17.8% (24 bets)

NBA Reb+Ast Over — AVOID −20.7% (37 bets)

NBA Steals Under — AVOID −15.9% (30 bets)

NBA Pts+Ast Under — AVOID −12.2% (53 bets)

NBA Points Over — AVOID −10.9% (38 bets)

NBA Assists Over — AVOID −9.4% (71 bets)

NBA Rebounds Under — AVOID −9.3% (136 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Under — AVOID −6.2% (100 bets)

Strategy: Selective play. Focus on proven prop types shown above.

Pinnacle

+0.0% ROI

1,865 bets · 48.7% win rate

NHL Shots On Goal Under +16.9% (223 bets)

NBA Assists Under +8.8% (90 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Over — AVOID −16.1% (173 bets)

MLB Strikeouts (P) Under — AVOID −12.5% (246 bets)

Strategy: Selective play. Focus on proven prop types shown above.

BetMGM

−0.0% ROI

2,483 bets · 50.5% win rate

NBA Rebounds Over +18.7% (93 bets)

NHL Shots On Goal Under +11.1% (181 bets)

NBA Pts+Reb Over — AVOID −25.6% (32 bets)

NBA Blocks Under — AVOID −15.0% (48 bets)

NBA Pts+Ast Over — AVOID −14.0% (34 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Under — AVOID −13.5% (163 bets)

NBA Reb+Ast Over — AVOID −12.6% (81 bets)

NBA Threes Under — AVOID −7.9% (101 bets)

MLB Strikeouts (P) Over — AVOID −7.3% (260 bets)

NBA Points Over — AVOID −5.3% (60 bets)

Strategy: Below breakeven overall. Only play the highlighted edges.

BetParx

−0.1% ROI

860 bets · 49.8% win rate

NBA Assists Under +22.2% (39 bets)

NBA Blocks Under +13.7% (24 bets)

NBA Assists Over — AVOID −18.6% (22 bets)

NBA Steals Under — AVOID −12.4% (28 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Over — AVOID −9.2% (72 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Under — AVOID −8.6% (156 bets)

NBA Points Over — AVOID −5.7% (24 bets)

Strategy: Below breakeven overall. Only play the highlighted edges.

✗ Polymarket

−8.3% ROI

65 bets · 44.6% win rate

MLB Strikeouts (P) Over −12.9% (50 bets)

MLB Strikeouts (P) Over — AVOID −12.9% (50 bets)

Strategy: Avoid general betting here. Highly selective exceptions only.

🚀 Priority Action Plan

      ✅ DO: The Core Edge Strategies
      NBA Points Over on BetRivers — 65.9% win rate, +36.4% ROI across 44 bets.
NBA Rebounds Over on DraftKings — 65.9% win rate, +35.1% ROI across 44 bets.
NBA Assists Under on BetParx — 59.0% win rate, +22.2% ROI across 39 bets.
NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over on BetRivers — 58.9% win rate, +21.8% ROI across 73 bets.
NHL Shots On Goal Under on Pinnacle — 55.2% win rate, +16.9% ROI across 223 bets.
Stick to odds 1.75 – 2.00 & 2.00 – 2.25 & 2.25 – 2.50 — the proven sweet spot. Higher odds have a strongly negative track record.

    

❌ DON'T: The Consistent Losers

NBA Pts+Reb Over (BetMGM worst: -25.6% ROI) — consistently underperforms across the dataset.
NBA Assists Over (BetRivers worst: -22.6% ROI) — consistently underperforms across the dataset.
NBA Reb+Ast Over (DraftKings worst: -20.7% ROI) — consistently underperforms across the dataset.
MLB Outs (P) Over (Caesars worst: -18.4% ROI) — consistently underperforms across the dataset.
Odds 1.50 – 1.75 and 2.50 – 3.00 — severely negative ROI. These destroy edge regardless of bet type.

⚠ Disclaimer: This analysis is based on a 121-day data window (14 Apr 2026–12 Aug 2026) covering 9,264 graded bets at £100 stake each. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly. All figures are in GBP (£).