US Prop Bets — Strategy Report

Total Graded Bets

32,622

0 pending excluded

Overall Win Rate

48.9%

15,953W / 16,669L

Overall P&L

−£35,719

on £3,262,200 staked

Overall ROI

−1.09%

All sites combined

Best Strategy ROI

+70.1%

Shots On Goal Under (all sites)

👀 Watch — tennis Match Winners at 4.00+ odds [BUILDING · 1/50 bets]

Since the cap (2026-09-23): n=1, ROI -100.00%, P&L £-100

All-time for context: n=345, ROI -40.81% · these bets are still captured, just never starred.

Too few results since the cap to judge. The cap stays.

✨ Headline Metrics — +ROI Combos Only same filter as Live Odds "Best Bets" (n ≥ 30, ROI > +2%)

Graded (combos)

10,123

71 qualifying combos

Win Rate (combos)

53.5%

5,418W / 4,705L

P&L (combos)

+£67,060

on £1,012,300 staked

ROI (combos)

+6.62%

vs all-bets −1.09%

Coverage

31%

10,123 of 32,622 graded bets matched

📈 Durable Core — edge holding as the sample grows each qualifying combo split in half by date · "recent half" = the larger, more-confident sample

Durable Core

combos holding · n=8,513

Core ROI (all-time)

+7.67%

across the durable core

Core ROI (recent half)

+9.69%

the holding signal · n=4,269

Fading / Building

10 / 14

not holding / too few bets

Site	Sport	Prop	Direction	Bets	ROI (all-time)	Early half	Recent half
BetMGM	MLB	Total Bases	Under	1,400	+2.3%	+2.0%	+2.6%
Caesars	MLB	Total Bases	Under	538	+5.0%	+6.2%	+3.8%
BetRivers	NBA	Points	Under	374	+4.3%	+7.9%	+0.6%
Hard Rock Bet	MLB	Total Bases	Under	349	+3.5%	−3.2%	+10.1%
FanDuel	MLB	Strikeouts (P)	Over	297	+4.7%	+1.9%	+7.5%
Hard Rock Bet	NBA	Points	Under	270	+4.7%	+6.2%	+3.2%
BetRivers	NBA	Points	Over	269	+9.0%	+15.9%	+2.2%
BetParx	NBA	Points	Under	261	+8.5%	+2.8%	+14.2%
BetRivers	MLB	Strikeouts (P)	Under	249	+7.9%	+10.6%	+5.3%
DraftKings	MLB	Outs (P)	Over	245	+4.8%	+3.9%	+5.8%
Bovada	NBA	Points	Over	239	+10.3%	+18.3%	+2.4%
BetParx	MLB	Strikeouts (P)	Under	187	+4.8%	+4.1%	+5.5%
ESPN Bet	NBA	Points	Under	183	+3.4%	−4.2%	+11.0%
FanDuel	NBA	Rebounds	Under	181	+2.6%	−1.4%	+6.6%
BetMGM	NBA	Assists	Under	180	+4.0%	−3.3%	+11.3%
Polymarket	MLB	Strikeouts (P)	Over	152	+5.5%	+4.6%	+6.5%
Bovada	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Under	151	+2.0%	−4.4%	+8.4%
BallyBet	NBA	Points	Over	144	+16.5%	+21.2%	+11.8%
DraftKings	NBA	Assists	Under	140	+2.4%	−9.2%	+14.0%
FanDuel	MLB	Outs (P)	Under	135	+20.4%	+16.3%	+24.4%
Hard Rock Bet	Tennis	Match Winner	Win	132	+6.8%	+1.0%	+12.5%
Hard Rock Bet	MLB	Strikeouts (P)	Over	127	+7.5%	−4.7%	+19.5%
FanDuel	Tennis	Match Winner	Win	124	+26.5%	+5.5%	+47.5%
DraftKings	MLB	Earned Runs	Under	124	+7.6%	−0.5%	+15.7%
Hard Rock Bet	NBA	Rebounds	Under	124	+15.7%	+0.8%	+30.7%
Hard Rock Bet	MLB	Outs (P)	Under	119	+25.0%	+34.0%	+16.2%
Bovada	NBA	Rebounds	Under	119	+16.1%	+12.7%	+19.4%
BetRivers	NBA	Assists	Under	109	+2.6%	−6.4%	+11.4%
BetRivers	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Over	109	+7.4%	+14.5%	+0.4%
BetMGM	NBA	Assists	Over	105	+3.8%	−8.2%	+15.5%
FanDuel	NBA	Threes	Under	100	+25.7%	+27.0%	+24.5%
DraftKings	NBA	Threes	Over	99	+23.9%	+14.5%	+33.1%
Kalshi	MLB	Strikeouts (P)	Under	99	+7.1%	−9.7%	+23.5%
Kalshi	MLB	Outs (P)	Over	98	+5.0%	−1.7%	+11.6%
BetParx	NBA	Rebounds	Under	98	+4.0%	−0.6%	+8.6%
BetRivers	Tennis	Match Winner	Win	92	+7.4%	+12.6%	+2.1%
Bovada	NBA	Assists	Over	89	+11.4%	+0.5%	+22.1%
BetParx	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Over	82	+14.9%	+21.3%	+8.4%
BallyBet	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Over	79	+16.3%	+27.1%	+5.8%
BetRivers	NBA	Threes	Under	74	+27.1%	+19.1%	+35.2%
Bovada	NBA	Threes	Over	70	+13.8%	−19.2%	+46.9%
Bovada	NBA	Threes	Under	69	+17.5%	+24.8%	+10.4%
BetParx	NBA	Threes	Under	68	+16.4%	+17.4%	+15.4%
BetMGM	NHL	Points	Over	67	+9.2%	+18.2%	+0.4%
BetMGM	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Under	65	+10.7%	+7.1%	+14.1%
Caesars	MLB	Outs (P)	Under	64	+21.5%	+37.6%	+5.4%
BetParx	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Under	64	+19.5%	+13.9%	+25.1%

Durable = a qualifying combo (n ≥ 60) whose ROI stays positive in its recent half — the edge persists as the database grows, the hallmark of a real, structural mispricing rather than a lucky early run. Ranked by sample size (most evidence first).

⚠ Fading (edge not holding in recent half): Bovada NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over (−7.2% recent half); BetParx Tennis Match Winner Win (−5.6% recent half); BetParx MLB Outs (P) Under (−4.8% recent half); DraftKings NBA Threes Under (−3.9% recent half); BetParx NBA Points Over (−3.7% recent half); DraftKings MLB Outs (P) Under (−2.3% recent half); Hard Rock Bet NHL Points Over (−1.3% recent half); BetRivers NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Under (−1.0% recent half); BetRivers NBA Rebounds Under (−0.6% recent half); DraftKings NBA Rebounds Over (−0.0% recent half)

🧭 Reality check — the all-time "+ROI Combos" headline (+6.62%) is backward-looking and inflated by selection. An honest walk-forward (re-qualify each Monday on prior data only, bet the following week, 26 weeks) gives qualifying −0.54% (n=5,507) vs the bets the filter rejects −2.51% (n=18,720) — so the filter still edges its rejects by 1.97 pts. Use the Durable Core above as the signal; treat this line as the guardrail against over-reading the headline ROI.

📈 Cumulative P&L Over Time

Cumulative P&L at £100 stake. Blue = all bets in the report; amber = +ROI combos only. The +ROI series is defined post-hoc from this same dataset, so it's a what-if backtest of the "discipline" filter, not a predictive curve.

⚡ Latest Grading Run — P&L by Bookmaker Bets transitioned in this run · 28 Sep 2026, 09:15

Bookmaker	Bets	Wins	Losses	P&L	ROI
DraftKings	70	36	34	+£292	+4.2%
Polymarket	1	1	0	+£107	+107.3%
Polymarket Us	24	12	12	+£106	+4.4%
Kalshi	56	27	29	−£52	−0.9%
Caesars	5	2	3	−£89	−17.8%
BetMGM	37	18	19	−£104	−2.8%
Hard Rock Bet	20	9	11	−£195	−9.8%
FanDuel	27	9	18	−£1,000	−37.0%
BetParx	69	29	40	−£1,021	−14.8%
BetRivers	32	9	23	−£1,309	−40.9%
TOTAL	341	152	189	−£3,264	−9.6%

✨ Latest Grading Run — +ROI Combos Only 71 qualifying combos (n ≥ 30, ROI > +2%)

Bookmaker	Bets	Wins	Losses	P&L	ROI
Caesars	1	1	0	+£109	+109.0%
Polymarket	1	1	0	+£107	+107.3%
BetMGM	3	1	2	−£85	−28.3%
TOTAL	5	3	2	+£131	+26.3%

📊 General Patterns Across All Sites

Direction	Bets	Win Rate	P&L	ROI	Verdict
Under	13,980	52.5%	+£18,654	+1.3%	~ MARGINAL
Over	18,011	46.1%	−£60,373	−3.4%	✗ AVOID

🏆 Performance by Sport

Sport	Bets	Win Rate	P&L	ROI	Verdict
🏀 NBA	10,872	50.4%	+£12,245	+1.1%	~ MARGINAL
🏀 WNBA	44	31.8%	−£1,638	−37.2%	✗ AVOID
🏒 NHL	773	48.6%	−£107	−0.1%	✗ AVOID
⚾ MLB	19,488	48.3%	−£42,146	−2.2%	✗ AVOID
🏈 NFL	765	43.0%	−£10,113	−13.2%	✗ AVOID
🏈 NCAAF	33	48.5%	−£354	−10.7%	✗ AVOID
🎾 Tennis	647	49.5%	+£6,394	+9.9%	✓ BET

🎯 Performance by Prop Type + Direction

Prop Type	Direction	Bets	Win Rate	P&L	ROI	Verdict
Shots On Goal	Under	73	82.2%	+£5,116	+70.1%	🔥 STRONG BET
Threes	Under	725	57.9%	+£10,630	+14.7%	🔥 STRONG BET
Rush Attempts	Over	46	56.5%	+£575	+12.5%	🔥 STRONG BET
Pts+Reb+Ast	Over	496	53.4%	+£5,103	+10.3%	🔥 STRONG BET
Match Winner	Win	561	48.8%	+£5,718	+10.2%	🔥 STRONG BET
Outs (P)	Under	887	55.4%	+£7,980	+9.0%	✓ BET
Pts+Reb+Ast	Under	539	54.0%	+£3,415	+6.3%	✓ BET
Game Handicap	Win	70	51.4%	+£282	+4.0%	✓ BET
Rushing Yards	Over	33	51.5%	+£129	+3.9%	✓ BET
Points	Over	2,217	50.9%	+£8,584	+3.9%	✓ BET
Rebounds	Under	1,300	51.7%	+£2,789	+2.1%	~ MARGINAL
Total Bases	Under	3,513	54.7%	+£6,726	+1.9%	~ MARGINAL
Home Runs	Under	94	79.8%	+£153	+1.6%	~ MARGINAL
Assists	Over	934	49.5%	+£1,303	+1.4%	~ MARGINAL
Earned Runs	Under	197	52.8%	−£15	−0.1%	✗ AVOID
Strikeouts (P)	Over	1,757	49.5%	−£1,497	−0.9%	✗ AVOID
Strikeouts (P)	Under	2,150	50.7%	−£2,772	−1.3%	✗ AVOID
Points	Under	2,439	49.7%	−£3,691	−1.5%	✗ AVOID
Threes	Over	769	48.9%	−£1,325	−1.7%	✗ AVOID
Outs (P)	Over	1,096	51.6%	−£2,563	−2.3%	✗ AVOID
Assists	Under	1,076	48.7%	−£3,058	−2.8%	✗ AVOID
Receptions	Over	214	46.7%	−£712	−3.3%	✗ AVOID
Total Bases	Over	8,256	43.6%	−£33,451	−4.1%	✗ AVOID
Rebounds	Over	936	45.0%	−£5,997	−6.4%	✗ AVOID
Hits Allowed	Under	623	47.8%	−£5,301	−8.5%	✗ AVOID
Receptions	Under	163	45.4%	−£1,475	−9.1%	✗ AVOID
Earned Runs	Over	294	44.2%	−£3,350	−11.4%	✗ AVOID
Hits Allowed	Over	614	44.6%	−£7,885	−12.8%	✗ AVOID
Rush Attempts	Under	50	44.0%	−£794	−15.9%	✗ AVOID
Anytime TD	Over	54	25.9%	−£2,131	−39.5%	✗ AVOID
Receiving Yards	Over	31	25.8%	−£1,573	−50.7%	✗ AVOID
Shots On Goal	Over	161	10.6%	−£12,573	−78.1%	✗ AVOID

💰 Optimal Odds Range

Odds Range	Bets	Win Rate	P&L	ROI	Verdict
1.50 – 1.75	4,345	60.7%	−£520	−0.1%	✗ AVOID
1.75 – 2.00	9,607	51.4%	−£36,497	−3.8%	✗ AVOID
2.00 – 2.25	10,559	47.9%	+£9,250	+0.9%	~ MARGINAL
2.25 – 2.50	5,542	42.8%	+£990	+0.2%	~ MARGINAL
2.50 – 3.00	2,438	36.9%	−£10,741	−4.4%	✗ AVOID
3.00+	131	34.4%	+£1,799	+13.7%	🔥 STRONG BET

💡 Key Strategy Insights

      🔥 Top Strategy: Shots On Goal Under (All Sites)
      82.2% win rate across 73 bets — highly significant sample
£+5,116 profit · ROI +70.1% on this bet type alone
The market consistently misprices this prop type
Check the site-by-site combos table for the best individual opportunities

    

      📌 Odds Sweet Spot: 3.00+
      Profitable ROI observed in the 3.00+ odds range
Below this range: win rates are high but margins are too thin for value
Above 2.50: win rates collapse dramatically — strongly negative ROI
Discipline on odds selection is as important as bet type selection

    

🚫 Avoid: Shots On Goal Over

Shots On Goal Over: 10.6% win rate · −78.1% ROI · −£12,573 loss
No site shows consistent profit on this category
The market prices this prop type very accurately — there is little or no edge
Avoid regardless of site or odds range

⚠️ Avoid: High Odds (2.50+)

High odds (2.50+) underperform significantly
Stick firmly to the sweet spot odds range for optimal value

🏢 Site-by-Site Performance — +ROI Combos Only Bets / Win Rate / P&L / ROI / Rating reflect only the qualifying-combo subset (n ≥ 30, ROI > +2%). Best & Worst Strategy columns still scan all data so emerging combos remain visible.

Site	Bets	Win Rate	P&L	ROI	Best Strategy	Worst Strategy	Rating
BetOnlineAG	32	62.5%	+£778	+24.3%	NBA Threes Under +24.3% 32 bets	NBA Assists Under −32.3% 29 bets NBA Rebounds Over −22.2% 29 bets NBA Points Over −12.1% 33 bets NBA Rebounds Under −11.4% 25 bets NBA Points Under −8.2% 48 bets NBA Threes Over −5.4% 29 bets NBA Assists Over −4.6% 21 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
Fanatics	38	60.5%	+£887	+23.3%	NHL Points Over +23.3% 38 bets	NBA Points Over −6.9% 163 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
BallyBet	223	56.5%	+£3,658	+16.4%	NBA Points Over +16.5% 144 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over +16.3% 79 bets NHL Points Over +9.3% 26 bets	NBA Threes Over −13.5% 69 bets NBA Rebounds Over −12.4% 75 bets NBA Assists Over −2.7% 57 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
FanDuel	920	54.3%	+£11,092	+12.1%	Tennis Match Winner Win +26.5% 124 bets NBA Threes Under +25.7% 100 bets NHL Goals Under +24.0% 21 bets MLB Outs (P) Under +20.4% 135 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Under +7.7% 50 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over +6.4% 53 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Over +4.7% 297 bets NBA Rebounds Under +2.6% 181 bets	NHL Shots On Goal Over −73.9% 135 bets NFL Receptions Under −42.2% 24 bets NFL Receptions Over −14.4% 24 bets NBA Points Under −9.4% 219 bets MLB Outs (P) Over −9.2% 140 bets NBA Assists Under −9.2% 129 bets NBA Threes Over −6.7% 124 bets NBA Rebounds Over −6.4% 180 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Under −4.2% 382 bets NBA Points Over −2.7% 261 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
Bovada	808	53.5%	+£8,263	+10.2%	NBA Threes Under +17.5% 69 bets NBA Rebounds Under +16.1% 119 bets NBA Threes Over +13.8% 70 bets NBA Assists Over +11.4% 89 bets NBA Points Over +10.3% 239 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over +5.3% 71 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Under +2.0% 151 bets	NBA Rebounds Over −10.9% 87 bets NBA Points Under −7.9% 298 bets NBA Assists Under −6.6% 104 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
Hard Rock Bet	1,279	56.2%	+£10,669	+8.3%	NHL Shots On Goal Under +63.2% 22 bets MLB Outs (P) Under +25.0% 119 bets NBA Rebounds Under +15.7% 124 bets NBA Threes Under +15.3% 49 bets NHL Assists Under +14.1% 27 bets NBA Threes Over +10.8% 31 bets NHL Points Over +10.0% 69 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over +10.0% 26 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Over +7.5% 127 bets Tennis Match Winner Win +6.8% 132 bets NBA Points Under +4.7% 270 bets MLB Total Bases Under +3.5% 349 bets NBA Assists Over +2.9% 37 bets	MLB Hits Allowed Over −28.4% 83 bets MLB Earned Runs Under −26.1% 52 bets MLB Earned Runs Over −24.1% 65 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Under −9.6% 231 bets MLB Total Bases Over −8.5% 641 bets MLB Hits Allowed Under −8.1% 95 bets NBA Assists Under −7.6% 97 bets MLB Outs (P) Over −5.2% 120 bets NBA Rebounds Over −3.4% 38 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
ESPN Bet	241	53.5%	+£1,916	+8.0%	NBA Threes Under +22.2% 58 bets NBA Points Under +3.4% 183 bets	NBA Assists Under −17.7% 66 bets NBA Assists Over −12.0% 45 bets NBA Points Over −2.3% 131 bets NBA Rebounds Under −2.2% 79 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
BetRivers	1,525	52.8%	+£10,855	+7.1%	NBA Threes Under +27.1% 74 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Under +11.4% 85 bets NHL Points Over +9.3% 26 bets Tennis Game Handicap Win +9.2% 39 bets NBA Points Over +9.0% 269 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Under +7.9% 249 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over +7.4% 109 bets Tennis Match Winner Win +7.4% 92 bets NBA Points Under +4.3% 374 bets NFL Receptions Over +3.6% 24 bets NBA Rebounds Under +3.5% 153 bets NBA Assists Under +2.6% 109 bets	NBA Threes Over −15.1% 91 bets NBA Rebounds Over −6.5% 96 bets MLB Outs (P) Over −3.6% 188 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Over −2.5% 252 bets MLB Total Bases Over −2.1% 1692 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
Caesars	685	57.2%	+£4,604	+6.7%	MLB Outs (P) Under +21.5% 64 bets NBA Points Over +11.1% 27 bets NBA Assists Over +9.4% 37 bets MLB Total Bases Under +5.0% 538 bets NBA Threes Under +4.2% 46 bets	NBA Points Under −18.5% 139 bets NBA Rebounds Over −12.3% 44 bets MLB Outs (P) Over −11.1% 100 bets NBA Threes Over −9.4% 42 bets NBA Rebounds Under −7.4% 66 bets Tennis Match Winner Win −3.8% 53 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
BetParx	1,223	53.1%	+£7,571	+6.2%	NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Under +19.5% 64 bets NBA Threes Under +16.4% 68 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over +14.9% 82 bets NBA Points Under +8.5% 261 bets NFL Receptions Over +5.0% 31 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Under +4.8% 187 bets NBA Rebounds Under +4.0% 98 bets Tennis Match Winner Win +3.6% 100 bets MLB Outs (P) Under +3.0% 213 bets NBA Points Over +2.4% 188 bets	Tennis Game Handicap Win −19.7% 23 bets NFL Receptions Under −16.0% 38 bets NBA Threes Over −13.5% 69 bets NBA Rebounds Over −5.9% 83 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Over −5.9% 198 bets MLB Total Bases Over −2.8% 1551 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
DraftKings	1,138	53.9%	+£5,651	+5.0%	NHL Shots On Goal Under +61.8% 20 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over +31.6% 25 bets NHL Points Over +26.4% 20 bets NBA Threes Over +23.9% 99 bets Tennis Match Winner Win +10.9% 49 bets MLB Earned Runs Under +7.6% 124 bets NFL Receptions Over +6.2% 32 bets MLB Outs (P) Over +4.8% 245 bets NBA Threes Under +4.3% 94 bets MLB Outs (P) Under +3.3% 219 bets NBA Assists Under +2.4% 140 bets NBA Rebounds Over +2.2% 129 bets	MLB Hits Allowed Over −21.7% 212 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Under −9.1% 27 bets NBA Rebounds Under −8.7% 199 bets MLB Hits Allowed Under −8.0% 236 bets NFL Receptions Under −7.9% 40 bets NBA Points Under −7.7% 291 bets MLB Earned Runs Over −6.2% 221 bets MLB Total Bases Over −5.6% 1154 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Under −4.1% 617 bets NBA Assists Over −2.4% 142 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
Polymarket	93	48.4%	+£204	+2.2%	MLB Strikeouts (P) Over +5.5% 152 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Under +4.4% 22 bets	—	⭐⭐ GOOD
BetMGM	1,774	51.1%	+£2,666	+1.5%	NHL Shots On Goal Under +76.3% 20 bets NHL Assists Over +19.8% 20 bets MLB Earned Runs Under +19.2% 21 bets NHL Assists Under +18.8% 26 bets NHL Points Under +17.8% 21 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Under +10.7% 65 bets NHL Points Over +9.2% 67 bets NBA Assists Under +4.0% 180 bets NBA Assists Over +3.8% 105 bets MLB Total Bases Under +2.3% 1400 bets	NFL Receptions Under −11.9% 35 bets MLB Hits Allowed Under −9.0% 292 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over −7.0% 25 bets MLB Outs (P) Over −6.5% 54 bets NBA Rebounds Over −5.8% 104 bets NBA Threes Over −5.3% 78 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Over −4.8% 265 bets MLB Total Bases Over −3.3% 2185 bets MLB Hits Allowed Over −2.9% 319 bets MLB Outs (P) Under −2.1% 96 bets	⭐⭐ GOOD
Kalshi	143	40.6%	−£1,653	−11.6%	MLB Strikeouts (P) Under +7.1% 99 bets MLB Outs (P) Over +5.0% 98 bets	NFL Receptions Over −14.8% 52 bets MLB Total Bases Over −10.0% 572 bets MLB Outs (P) Under −7.2% 41 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Over −6.7% 150 bets	✗ AVOID

🏆 Top Specific Combinations (min 30 bets)

Site	Sport	Prop	Direction	Bets	Win Rate	P&L	ROI
BetRivers	NBA	Threes	Under	74	64.9%	+£2,009	+27.1%
FanDuel	Tennis	Match Winner	Win	124	49.2%	+£3,282	+26.5%
FanDuel	NBA	Threes	Under	100	62.0%	+£2,572	+25.7%
Hard Rock Bet	MLB	Outs (P)	Under	119	62.2%	+£2,977	+25.0%
BetOnlineAG	NBA	Threes	Under	32	62.5%	+£778	+24.3%
DraftKings	NBA	Threes	Over	99	61.6%	+£2,366	+23.9%
Fanatics	NHL	Points	Over	38	60.5%	+£887	+23.3%
ESPN Bet	NBA	Threes	Under	58	62.1%	+£1,289	+22.2%
Caesars	MLB	Outs (P)	Under	64	60.9%	+£1,376	+21.5%
FanDuel	MLB	Outs (P)	Under	135	60.0%	+£2,749	+20.4%
BetParx	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Under	64	59.4%	+£1,248	+19.5%
Bovada	NBA	Threes	Under	69	58.0%	+£1,207	+17.5%
BallyBet	NBA	Points	Over	144	56.9%	+£2,371	+16.5%
BetParx	NBA	Threes	Under	68	58.8%	+£1,115	+16.4%
BallyBet	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Over	79	55.7%	+£1,287	+16.3%
Bovada	NBA	Rebounds	Under	119	56.3%	+£1,913	+16.1%
Hard Rock Bet	NBA	Rebounds	Under	124	59.7%	+£1,949	+15.7%
Hard Rock Bet	NBA	Threes	Under	49	59.2%	+£751	+15.3%
BetParx	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Over	82	54.9%	+£1,221	+14.9%
Bovada	NBA	Threes	Over	70	57.1%	+£968	+13.8%

📋 Site-by-Site Strategy Summary

⭐ Polymarket

+5.4% ROI

174 bets · 51.1% win rate

MLB Strikeouts (P) Over +5.5% (152 bets)

MLB Strikeouts (P) Under +4.4% (22 bets)

Strategy: Strong overall performance. Back best categories freely.

⭐ BallyBet

+3.5% ROI

508 bets · 50.8% win rate

NBA Points Over +16.5% (144 bets)

NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over +16.3% (79 bets)

NBA Threes Over — AVOID −13.5% (69 bets)

NBA Rebounds Over — AVOID −12.4% (75 bets)

Strategy: Strong overall performance. Back best categories freely.

⭐ Bovada

+3.4% ROI

1,311 bets · 50.0% win rate

NBA Threes Under +17.5% (69 bets)

NBA Rebounds Under +16.1% (119 bets)

NBA Rebounds Over — AVOID −10.9% (87 bets)

NBA Points Under — AVOID −7.9% (298 bets)

NBA Assists Under — AVOID −6.6% (104 bets)

Strategy: Strong overall performance. Back best categories freely.

⭐ Fliff

+2.5% ROI

52 bets · 51.9% win rate

Strategy: Selective play. Focus on proven prop types shown above.

BetRivers

+0.6% ROI

4,058 bets · 46.7% win rate

NBA Threes Under +27.1% (74 bets)

NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Under +11.4% (85 bets)

NBA Threes Over — AVOID −15.1% (91 bets)

NBA Rebounds Over — AVOID −6.5% (96 bets)

Strategy: Selective play. Focus on proven prop types shown above.

BetParx

−0.3% ROI

4,378 bets · 48.5% win rate

NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Under +19.5% (64 bets)

NBA Threes Under +16.4% (68 bets)

Tennis Game Handicap Win — AVOID −19.7% (23 bets)

NFL Receptions Under — AVOID −16.0% (38 bets)

NBA Threes Over — AVOID −13.5% (69 bets)

NBA Rebounds Over — AVOID −5.9% (83 bets)

MLB Strikeouts (P) Over — AVOID −5.9% (198 bets)

Strategy: Below breakeven overall. Only play the highlighted edges.

Hard Rock Bet

−0.4% ROI

3,096 bets · 50.2% win rate

NHL Shots On Goal Under +63.2% (22 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Under +25.0% (119 bets)

MLB Hits Allowed Over — AVOID −28.4% (83 bets)

MLB Earned Runs Under — AVOID −26.1% (52 bets)

MLB Earned Runs Over — AVOID −24.1% (65 bets)

MLB Strikeouts (P) Under — AVOID −9.6% (231 bets)

MLB Total Bases Over — AVOID −8.5% (641 bets)

MLB Hits Allowed Under — AVOID −8.1% (95 bets)

NBA Assists Under — AVOID −7.6% (97 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Over — AVOID −5.2% (120 bets)

Strategy: Below breakeven overall. Only play the highlighted edges.

Caesars

−0.4% ROI

1,706 bets · 52.1% win rate

MLB Outs (P) Under +21.5% (64 bets)

NBA Points Over +11.1% (27 bets)

NBA Points Under — AVOID −18.5% (139 bets)

NBA Rebounds Over — AVOID −12.3% (44 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Over — AVOID −11.1% (100 bets)

NBA Threes Over — AVOID −9.4% (42 bets)

NBA Rebounds Under — AVOID −7.4% (66 bets)

Strategy: Below breakeven overall. Only play the highlighted edges.

ESPN Bet

−0.5% ROI

683 bets · 49.2% win rate

NBA Threes Under +22.2% (58 bets)

NBA Points Under +3.4% (183 bets)

NBA Assists Under — AVOID −17.7% (66 bets)

NBA Assists Over — AVOID −12.0% (45 bets)

Strategy: Below breakeven overall. Only play the highlighted edges.

✗ BetMGM

−1.1% ROI

6,597 bets · 50.4% win rate

NHL Shots On Goal Under +76.3% (20 bets)

NHL Assists Over +19.8% (20 bets)

NFL Receptions Under — AVOID −11.9% (35 bets)

MLB Hits Allowed Under — AVOID −9.0% (292 bets)

NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over — AVOID −7.0% (25 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Over — AVOID −6.5% (54 bets)

NBA Rebounds Over — AVOID −5.8% (104 bets)

NBA Threes Over — AVOID −5.3% (78 bets)

Strategy: Below breakeven overall. Only play the highlighted edges.

✗ DraftKings

−2.6% ROI

5,483 bets · 48.9% win rate

NHL Shots On Goal Under +61.8% (20 bets)

NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over +31.6% (25 bets)

MLB Hits Allowed Over — AVOID −21.7% (212 bets)

NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Under — AVOID −9.1% (27 bets)

NBA Rebounds Under — AVOID −8.7% (199 bets)

MLB Hits Allowed Under — AVOID −8.0% (236 bets)

NFL Receptions Under — AVOID −7.9% (40 bets)

NBA Points Under — AVOID −7.7% (291 bets)

MLB Earned Runs Over — AVOID −6.2% (221 bets)

MLB Total Bases Over — AVOID −5.6% (1154 bets)

Strategy: Below breakeven overall. Only play the highlighted edges.

✗ Fanatics

−2.8% ROI

267 bets · 48.7% win rate

NHL Points Over +23.3% (38 bets)

NBA Points Over −6.9% (163 bets)

NBA Points Over — AVOID −6.9% (163 bets)

Strategy: Below breakeven overall. Only play the highlighted edges.

✗ FanDuel

−3.2% ROI

2,854 bets · 47.9% win rate

Tennis Match Winner Win +26.5% (124 bets)

NBA Threes Under +25.7% (100 bets)

NHL Shots On Goal Over — AVOID −73.9% (135 bets)

NFL Receptions Under — AVOID −42.2% (24 bets)

NFL Receptions Over — AVOID −14.4% (24 bets)

NBA Points Under — AVOID −9.4% (219 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Over — AVOID −9.2% (140 bets)

NBA Assists Under — AVOID −9.2% (129 bets)

NBA Threes Over — AVOID −6.7% (124 bets)

NBA Rebounds Over — AVOID −6.4% (180 bets)

Strategy: Avoid general betting here. Highly selective exceptions only.

✗ BetOnlineAG

−6.2% ROI

290 bets · 47.9% win rate

NBA Threes Under +24.3% (32 bets)

NBA Assists Over −4.6% (21 bets)

NBA Assists Under — AVOID −32.3% (29 bets)

NBA Rebounds Over — AVOID −22.2% (29 bets)

NBA Points Over — AVOID −12.1% (33 bets)

NBA Rebounds Under — AVOID −11.4% (25 bets)

NBA Points Under — AVOID −8.2% (48 bets)

NBA Threes Over — AVOID −5.4% (29 bets)

Strategy: Avoid general betting here. Highly selective exceptions only.

✗ Kalshi

−7.7% ROI

1,066 bets · 41.2% win rate

MLB Strikeouts (P) Under +7.1% (99 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Over +5.0% (98 bets)

NFL Receptions Over — AVOID −14.8% (52 bets)

MLB Total Bases Over — AVOID −10.0% (572 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Under — AVOID −7.2% (41 bets)

MLB Strikeouts (P) Over — AVOID −6.7% (150 bets)

Strategy: Avoid general betting here. Highly selective exceptions only.

🚀 Priority Action Plan

      ✅ DO: The Core Edge Strategies
      NBA Threes Under on BetRivers — 64.9% win rate, +27.1% ROI across 74 bets.
Tennis Match Winner Win on FanDuel — 49.2% win rate, +26.5% ROI across 124 bets.
NBA Threes Under on FanDuel — 62.0% win rate, +25.7% ROI across 100 bets.
MLB Outs (P) Under on Hard Rock Bet — 62.2% win rate, +25.0% ROI across 119 bets.
NBA Threes Over on DraftKings — 61.6% win rate, +23.9% ROI across 99 bets.
Stick to odds 3.00+ — the proven sweet spot. Higher odds have a strongly negative track record.

    

❌ DON'T: The Consistent Losers

NHL Shots On Goal Over (FanDuel worst: -73.9% ROI) — consistently underperforms across the dataset.
MLB Hits Allowed Over (Hard Rock Bet worst: -28.4% ROI) — consistently underperforms across the dataset.
MLB Earned Runs Under (Hard Rock Bet worst: -26.1% ROI) — consistently underperforms across the dataset.
MLB Earned Runs Over (Hard Rock Bet worst: -24.1% ROI) — consistently underperforms across the dataset.
Avoid BetOnlineAG, Kalshi — structural negative ROI. Selective exceptions only if any profitable combo exists.

⚠ Disclaimer: This analysis is based on a 203-day data window (9 Mar 2026–27 Sep 2026) covering 32,622 graded bets at £100 stake each. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly. All figures are in GBP (£).