US Prop Bets — Strategy Report

Total Graded Bets

22,352

65 pending excluded

Overall Win Rate

50.1%

11,197W / 11,155L

Overall P&L

−£3,687

on £2,235,200 staked

Overall ROI

−0.16%

All sites combined

Best Strategy ROI

+70.1%

Shots On Goal Under (all sites)

✨ Headline Metrics — +ROI Combos Only same filter as Live Odds "Best Bets" (n ≥ 30, ROI > +2%)

Graded (combos)

8,501

64 qualifying combos

Win Rate (combos)

54.8%

4,657W / 3,844L

P&L (combos)

+£68,980

on £850,100 staked

ROI (combos)

+8.11%

vs all-bets −0.16%

Coverage

38%

8,501 of 22,352 graded bets matched

📈 Durable Core — edge holding as the sample grows each qualifying combo split in half by date · "recent half" = the larger, more-confident sample

Durable Core

combos holding · n=6,944

Core ROI (all-time)

+8.10%

across the durable core

Core ROI (recent half)

+10.26%

the holding signal · n=3,484

Fading / Building

8 / 15

not holding / too few bets

Site	Sport	Prop	Direction	Bets	ROI (all-time)	Early half	Recent half
BetMGM	MLB	Total Bases	Under	825	+2.1%	+4.0%	+0.2%
DraftKings	MLB	Total Bases	Under	419	+2.7%	+5.2%	+0.2%
Caesars	MLB	Total Bases	Under	404	+8.0%	+5.9%	+10.0%
BetRivers	NBA	Points	Under	374	+4.3%	+7.9%	+0.6%
Hard Rock Bet	MLB	Total Bases	Under	274	+2.1%	−6.1%	+10.3%
Hard Rock Bet	NBA	Points	Under	270	+4.7%	+6.2%	+3.2%
BetRivers	NBA	Points	Over	269	+9.0%	+15.9%	+2.2%
BetParx	NBA	Points	Under	261	+8.5%	+2.8%	+14.2%
Bovada	NBA	Points	Over	239	+10.3%	+18.3%	+2.4%
BetMGM	MLB	Hits Allowed	Over	197	+5.7%	+8.1%	+3.3%
ESPN Bet	NBA	Points	Under	183	+3.4%	−4.2%	+11.0%
FanDuel	MLB	Strikeouts (P)	Over	181	+5.2%	−5.4%	+15.7%
FanDuel	NBA	Rebounds	Under	181	+2.6%	−1.4%	+6.6%
BetMGM	NBA	Assists	Under	180	+4.0%	−3.3%	+11.3%
DraftKings	MLB	Outs (P)	Over	161	+7.6%	+2.9%	+12.2%
Bovada	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Under	151	+2.0%	−4.4%	+8.4%
BallyBet	NBA	Points	Over	144	+16.5%	+21.2%	+11.8%
DraftKings	MLB	Outs (P)	Under	142	+9.8%	−3.1%	+22.8%
DraftKings	NBA	Assists	Under	140	+2.4%	−9.2%	+14.0%
Hard Rock Bet	NBA	Rebounds	Under	124	+15.7%	+0.8%	+30.7%
Bovada	NBA	Rebounds	Under	119	+16.1%	+12.7%	+19.4%
BetRivers	NBA	Assists	Under	109	+2.6%	−6.4%	+11.4%
BetRivers	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Over	109	+7.4%	+14.5%	+0.4%
BetMGM	NBA	Assists	Over	105	+3.8%	−8.2%	+15.5%
FanDuel	NBA	Threes	Under	100	+25.7%	+27.0%	+24.5%
DraftKings	NBA	Threes	Over	99	+23.9%	+14.5%	+33.1%
BetParx	MLB	Outs (P)	Under	99	+14.9%	+2.3%	+27.2%
BetParx	NBA	Rebounds	Under	98	+4.0%	−0.6%	+8.6%
FanDuel	MLB	Outs (P)	Under	95	+27.0%	+26.5%	+27.6%
Bovada	NBA	Assists	Over	89	+11.4%	+0.5%	+22.1%
DraftKings	MLB	Earned Runs	Under	84	+13.2%	+6.9%	+19.4%
BetParx	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Over	82	+14.9%	+21.3%	+8.4%
Hard Rock Bet	MLB	Outs (P)	Under	81	+35.0%	+28.1%	+41.7%
BallyBet	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Over	79	+16.3%	+27.1%	+5.8%
BetRivers	NBA	Threes	Under	74	+27.1%	+19.1%	+35.2%
Bovada	NBA	Threes	Over	70	+13.8%	−19.2%	+46.9%
Bovada	NBA	Threes	Under	69	+17.5%	+24.8%	+10.4%
BetParx	NBA	Threes	Under	68	+16.4%	+17.4%	+15.4%
BetMGM	NHL	Points	Over	67	+9.2%	+18.2%	+0.4%
BetMGM	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Under	65	+10.7%	+7.1%	+14.1%
BetParx	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Under	64	+19.5%	+13.9%	+25.1%

Durable = a qualifying combo (n ≥ 60) whose ROI stays positive in its recent half — the edge persists as the database grows, the hallmark of a real, structural mispricing rather than a lucky early run. Ranked by sample size (most evidence first).

⚠ Fading (edge not holding in recent half): Bovada NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over (−7.2% recent half); BetRivers MLB Strikeouts (P) Under (−6.1% recent half); DraftKings NBA Threes Under (−3.9% recent half); BetParx NBA Points Over (−3.7% recent half); Hard Rock Bet NHL Points Over (−1.3% recent half); BetRivers NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Under (−1.0% recent half); BetRivers NBA Rebounds Under (−0.6% recent half); DraftKings NBA Rebounds Over (−0.0% recent half)

🧭 Reality check — the all-time "+ROI Combos" headline (+8.11%) is backward-looking and inflated by selection. An honest walk-forward (re-qualify each Monday on prior data only, bet the following week, 13 weeks) gives qualifying −0.27% (n=3,778) vs the bets the filter rejects −1.66% (n=10,179) — so the filter still edges its rejects by 1.39 pts. Use the Durable Core above as the signal; treat this line as the guardrail against over-reading the headline ROI.

📈 Cumulative P&L Over Time

Cumulative P&L at £100 stake. Blue = all bets in the report; amber = +ROI combos only. The +ROI series is defined post-hoc from this same dataset, so it's a what-if backtest of the "discipline" filter, not a predictive curve.

⚡ Latest Grading Run — P&L by Bookmaker Bets transitioned in this run · 29 Jun 2026, 08:58

Bookmaker	Bets	Wins	Losses	P&L	ROI
BetMGM	64	37	27	+£673	+10.5%
FanDuel	10	4	6	−£213	−21.3%
Caesars	12	5	7	−£352	−29.3%
DraftKings	47	22	25	−£397	−8.4%
BetParx	22	9	13	−£449	−20.4%
BetRivers	14	4	10	−£528	−37.7%
Hard Rock Bet	22	8	14	−£718	−32.6%
TOTAL	191	89	102	−£1,984	−10.4%

✨ Latest Grading Run — +ROI Combos Only 64 qualifying combos (n ≥ 30, ROI > +2%)

Bookmaker	Bets	Wins	Losses	P&L	ROI
DraftKings	10	8	2	+£422	+42.2%
BetMGM	4	4	0	+£356	+89.0%
Caesars	6	5	1	+£248	+41.3%
BetParx	2	2	0	+£178	+89.0%
Hard Rock Bet	1	1	0	+£95	+95.0%
FanDuel	4	1	3	−£202	−50.5%
BetRivers	3	0	3	−£300	−100.0%
TOTAL	30	21	9	+£797	+26.6%

📊 General Patterns Across All Sites

Direction	Bets	Win Rate	P&L	ROI	Verdict
Under	10,603	52.8%	+£25,280	+2.4%	~ MARGINAL
Over	11,514	47.6%	−£29,359	−2.5%	✗ AVOID

🏆 Performance by Sport

Sport	Bets	Win Rate	P&L	ROI	Verdict
🏀 NBA	10,872	50.4%	+£12,245	+1.1%	~ MARGINAL
🏒 NHL	773	48.6%	−£107	−0.1%	✗ AVOID
⚾ MLB	10,467	49.8%	−£16,107	−1.5%	✗ AVOID
🎾 Tennis	240	51.7%	+£282	+1.2%	~ MARGINAL

🎯 Performance by Prop Type + Direction

Prop Type	Direction	Bets	Win Rate	P&L	ROI	Verdict
Shots On Goal	Under	73	82.2%	+£5,116	+70.1%	🔥 STRONG BET
Outs (P)	Under	511	61.1%	+£10,753	+21.0%	🔥 STRONG BET
Threes	Under	725	57.9%	+£10,630	+14.7%	🔥 STRONG BET
Pts+Reb+Ast	Over	496	53.4%	+£5,103	+10.3%	🔥 STRONG BET
Match Winner	Win	195	54.9%	+£1,349	+6.9%	✓ BET
Earned Runs	Under	138	56.5%	+£915	+6.6%	✓ BET
Pts+Reb+Ast	Under	539	54.0%	+£3,415	+6.3%	✓ BET
Points	Over	2,185	51.4%	+£10,613	+4.9%	✓ BET
Total Bases	Under	2,190	55.2%	+£5,351	+2.4%	~ MARGINAL
Rebounds	Under	1,297	51.6%	+£2,534	+2.0%	~ MARGINAL
Assists	Over	928	49.5%	+£1,258	+1.4%	~ MARGINAL
Points	Under	2,437	49.7%	−£3,680	−1.5%	✗ AVOID
Outs (P)	Over	618	52.4%	−£979	−1.6%	✗ AVOID
Threes	Over	769	48.9%	−£1,325	−1.7%	✗ AVOID
Strikeouts (P)	Over	854	49.6%	−£1,539	−1.8%	✗ AVOID
Strikeouts (P)	Under	1,161	50.0%	−£3,106	−2.7%	✗ AVOID
Assists	Under	1,075	48.7%	−£3,160	−2.9%	✗ AVOID
Total Bases	Over	3,949	45.6%	−£15,751	−4.0%	✗ AVOID
Home Runs	Under	52	75.0%	−£306	−5.9%	✗ AVOID
Rebounds	Over	936	45.0%	−£5,997	−6.4%	✗ AVOID
Hits Allowed	Under	384	47.4%	−£3,686	−9.6%	✗ AVOID
Hits Allowed	Over	391	45.5%	−£4,419	−11.3%	✗ AVOID
Earned Runs	Over	212	42.5%	−£3,169	−14.9%	✗ AVOID
Game Handicap	Win	40	37.5%	−£957	−23.9%	✗ AVOID
Shots On Goal	Over	161	10.6%	−£12,573	−78.1%	✗ AVOID

💰 Optimal Odds Range

Odds Range	Bets	Win Rate	P&L	ROI	Verdict
1.50 – 1.75	2,965	60.4%	−£1,604	−0.5%	✗ AVOID
1.75 – 2.00	7,401	51.5%	−£26,868	−3.6%	✗ AVOID
2.00 – 2.25	7,956	48.9%	+£21,664	+2.7%	~ MARGINAL
2.25 – 2.50	3,142	43.8%	+£6,456	+2.1%	~ MARGINAL
2.50 – 3.00	888	37.3%	−£3,335	−3.8%	✗ AVOID

💡 Key Strategy Insights

      🔥 Top Strategy: Shots On Goal Under (All Sites)
      82.2% win rate across 73 bets — highly significant sample
£+5,116 profit · ROI +70.1% on this bet type alone
The market consistently misprices this prop type
Check the site-by-site combos table for the best individual opportunities

    

      📌 Odds Sweet Spot: 2.00 – 2.25 & 2.25 – 2.50
      Profitable ROI observed in the 2.00 – 2.25 & 2.25 – 2.50 odds range
Below this range: win rates are high but margins are too thin for value
Above 2.50: win rates collapse dramatically — strongly negative ROI
Discipline on odds selection is as important as bet type selection

    

🚫 Avoid: Shots On Goal Over

Shots On Goal Over: 10.6% win rate · −78.1% ROI · −£12,573 loss
No site shows consistent profit on this category
The market prices this prop type very accurately — there is little or no edge
Avoid regardless of site or odds range

⚠️ Avoid: High Odds (2.50+)

High odds (2.50+) underperform significantly
Stick firmly to the sweet spot odds range for optimal value

🏢 Site-by-Site Performance — +ROI Combos Only Bets / Win Rate / P&L / ROI / Rating reflect only the qualifying-combo subset (n ≥ 30, ROI > +2%). Best & Worst Strategy columns still scan all data so emerging combos remain visible.

Site	Bets	Win Rate	P&L	ROI	Best Strategy	Worst Strategy	Rating
BetOnlineAG	32	62.5%	+£778	+24.3%	NBA Threes Under +24.3% 32 bets	NBA Assists Under −32.3% 29 bets NBA Rebounds Over −22.2% 29 bets NBA Points Over −12.1% 33 bets NBA Rebounds Under −11.4% 25 bets NBA Points Under −8.2% 48 bets NBA Threes Over −5.4% 29 bets NBA Assists Over −4.6% 21 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
Fanatics	38	60.5%	+£887	+23.3%	NHL Points Over +23.3% 38 bets	NBA Points Over −6.9% 163 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
BallyBet	223	56.5%	+£3,658	+16.4%	NBA Points Over +16.5% 144 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over +16.3% 79 bets NHL Points Over +9.3% 26 bets	NBA Threes Over −13.5% 69 bets NBA Rebounds Over −12.4% 75 bets NBA Assists Over −2.7% 57 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
FanDuel	660	55.5%	+£7,277	+11.0%	MLB Outs (P) Under +27.0% 95 bets NBA Threes Under +25.7% 100 bets NHL Goals Under +24.0% 21 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Under +7.7% 50 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over +6.4% 53 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Over +5.2% 181 bets NBA Rebounds Under +2.6% 181 bets	NHL Shots On Goal Over −73.9% 135 bets NBA Points Under −9.4% 219 bets NBA Assists Under −9.2% 129 bets MLB Outs (P) Over −8.5% 87 bets NBA Threes Over −6.7% 124 bets NBA Rebounds Over −6.4% 180 bets NBA Points Over −2.7% 261 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
Bovada	808	53.5%	+£8,263	+10.2%	NBA Threes Under +17.5% 69 bets NBA Rebounds Under +16.1% 119 bets NBA Threes Over +13.8% 70 bets NBA Assists Over +11.4% 89 bets NBA Points Over +10.3% 239 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over +5.3% 71 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Under +2.0% 151 bets	NBA Rebounds Over −10.9% 87 bets NBA Points Under −7.9% 298 bets NBA Assists Under −6.6% 104 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
Caesars	534	58.4%	+£5,061	+9.5%	MLB Outs (P) Under +27.7% 47 bets NBA Points Over +11.1% 27 bets NBA Assists Over +9.4% 37 bets MLB Total Bases Under +8.0% 404 bets Tennis Match Winner Win +6.8% 21 bets NBA Threes Under +4.2% 46 bets	NBA Points Under −18.5% 139 bets MLB Outs (P) Over −18.0% 57 bets NBA Rebounds Over −12.3% 44 bets NBA Threes Over −9.4% 42 bets NBA Rebounds Under −7.4% 66 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
BetParx	898	54.5%	+£8,427	+9.4%	NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Under +19.5% 64 bets NBA Threes Under +16.4% 68 bets MLB Outs (P) Under +14.9% 99 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over +14.9% 82 bets NBA Points Under +8.5% 261 bets Tennis Match Winner Win +8.0% 38 bets NBA Rebounds Under +4.0% 98 bets NBA Points Over +2.4% 188 bets	NBA Threes Over −13.5% 69 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Over −8.1% 123 bets MLB Total Bases Over −6.7% 410 bets NBA Rebounds Over −5.9% 83 bets MLB Home Runs Under −5.9% 52 bets MLB Total Bases Under −4.9% 268 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
Hard Rock Bet	977	56.8%	+£8,793	+9.0%	NHL Shots On Goal Under +63.2% 22 bets MLB Outs (P) Under +35.0% 81 bets NBA Rebounds Under +15.7% 124 bets NBA Threes Under +15.3% 49 bets NHL Assists Under +14.1% 27 bets NBA Threes Over +10.8% 31 bets NHL Points Over +10.0% 69 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over +10.0% 26 bets Tennis Match Winner Win +8.1% 49 bets NBA Points Under +4.7% 270 bets NBA Assists Over +2.9% 37 bets MLB Total Bases Under +2.1% 274 bets	MLB Hits Allowed Over −37.3% 58 bets MLB Earned Runs Over −32.8% 52 bets MLB Earned Runs Under −17.2% 38 bets MLB Hits Allowed Under −11.1% 77 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Under −8.4% 132 bets MLB Total Bases Over −8.1% 447 bets NBA Assists Under −7.6% 97 bets NBA Rebounds Over −3.4% 38 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
ESPN Bet	241	53.5%	+£1,916	+8.0%	NBA Threes Under +22.2% 58 bets NBA Points Under +3.4% 183 bets	NBA Assists Under −17.7% 66 bets NBA Assists Over −12.0% 45 bets NBA Points Over −2.3% 131 bets NBA Rebounds Under −2.2% 79 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
BetRivers	1,385	53.1%	+£9,925	+7.2%	NBA Threes Under +27.1% 74 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Under +11.4% 85 bets NHL Points Over +9.3% 26 bets NBA Points Over +9.0% 269 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over +7.4% 109 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Under +6.2% 179 bets Tennis Match Winner Win +5.4% 33 bets NBA Points Under +4.3% 374 bets NBA Rebounds Under +3.5% 153 bets NBA Assists Under +2.6% 109 bets	NBA Threes Over −15.1% 91 bets NBA Rebounds Over −6.5% 96 bets MLB Total Bases Over −3.2% 551 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Over −2.1% 176 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
DraftKings	1,268	56.6%	+£8,241	+6.5%	NHL Shots On Goal Under +61.8% 20 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over +31.6% 25 bets NHL Points Over +26.4% 20 bets NBA Threes Over +23.9% 99 bets MLB Earned Runs Under +13.2% 84 bets MLB Outs (P) Under +9.8% 142 bets MLB Outs (P) Over +7.6% 161 bets NBA Threes Under +4.3% 94 bets MLB Total Bases Under +2.7% 419 bets NBA Assists Under +2.4% 140 bets NBA Rebounds Over +2.2% 129 bets	MLB Hits Allowed Over −24.8% 136 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Under −9.3% 294 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Under −9.1% 27 bets NBA Rebounds Under −8.7% 199 bets MLB Hits Allowed Under −8.2% 163 bets NBA Points Under −7.7% 291 bets MLB Earned Runs Over −7.5% 155 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Over −4.4% 152 bets NBA Assists Over −2.4% 142 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP
BetMGM	1,437	52.3%	+£5,754	+4.0%	NHL Shots On Goal Under +76.3% 20 bets MLB Outs (P) Under +25.0% 47 bets NHL Assists Over +19.8% 20 bets NHL Assists Under +18.8% 26 bets NHL Points Under +17.8% 21 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Under +10.7% 65 bets NHL Points Over +9.2% 67 bets MLB Hits Allowed Over +5.7% 197 bets NBA Assists Under +4.0% 180 bets NBA Assists Over +3.8% 105 bets MLB Total Bases Under +2.1% 825 bets	MLB Hits Allowed Under −10.4% 144 bets NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over −7.0% 25 bets NBA Rebounds Over −5.8% 104 bets NBA Threes Over −5.3% 78 bets MLB Total Bases Over −4.1% 1547 bets MLB Strikeouts (P) Over −2.3% 145 bets	⭐⭐⭐ TOP

🏆 Top Specific Combinations (min 30 bets)

Site	Sport	Prop	Direction	Bets	Win Rate	P&L	ROI
Hard Rock Bet	MLB	Outs (P)	Under	81	65.4%	+£2,833	+35.0%
Caesars	MLB	Outs (P)	Under	47	63.8%	+£1,303	+27.7%
BetRivers	NBA	Threes	Under	74	64.9%	+£2,009	+27.1%
FanDuel	MLB	Outs (P)	Under	95	63.2%	+£2,568	+27.0%
FanDuel	NBA	Threes	Under	100	62.0%	+£2,572	+25.7%
BetMGM	MLB	Outs (P)	Under	47	63.8%	+£1,176	+25.0%
BetOnlineAG	NBA	Threes	Under	32	62.5%	+£778	+24.3%
DraftKings	NBA	Threes	Over	99	61.6%	+£2,366	+23.9%
Fanatics	NHL	Points	Over	38	60.5%	+£887	+23.3%
ESPN Bet	NBA	Threes	Under	58	62.1%	+£1,289	+22.2%
BetParx	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Under	64	59.4%	+£1,248	+19.5%
Bovada	NBA	Threes	Under	69	58.0%	+£1,207	+17.5%
BallyBet	NBA	Points	Over	144	56.9%	+£2,371	+16.5%
BetParx	NBA	Threes	Under	68	58.8%	+£1,115	+16.4%
BallyBet	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Over	79	55.7%	+£1,287	+16.3%
Bovada	NBA	Rebounds	Under	119	56.3%	+£1,913	+16.1%
Hard Rock Bet	NBA	Rebounds	Under	124	59.7%	+£1,949	+15.7%
Hard Rock Bet	NBA	Threes	Under	49	59.2%	+£751	+15.3%
BetParx	MLB	Outs (P)	Under	99	58.6%	+£1,476	+14.9%
BetParx	NBA	Pts+Reb+Ast	Over	82	54.9%	+£1,221	+14.9%

📋 Site-by-Site Strategy Summary

⭐ BallyBet

+3.5% ROI

508 bets · 50.8% win rate

NBA Points Over +16.5% (144 bets)

NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over +16.3% (79 bets)

NBA Threes Over — AVOID −13.5% (69 bets)

NBA Rebounds Over — AVOID −12.4% (75 bets)

Strategy: Strong overall performance. Back best categories freely.

⭐ Bovada

+3.4% ROI

1,311 bets · 50.0% win rate

NBA Threes Under +17.5% (69 bets)

NBA Rebounds Under +16.1% (119 bets)

NBA Rebounds Over — AVOID −10.9% (87 bets)

NBA Points Under — AVOID −7.9% (298 bets)

NBA Assists Under — AVOID −6.6% (104 bets)

Strategy: Strong overall performance. Back best categories freely.

⭐ Fliff

+2.5% ROI

52 bets · 51.9% win rate

Strategy: Selective play. Focus on proven prop types shown above.

⭐ BetRivers

+1.7% ROI

2,571 bets · 48.9% win rate

NBA Threes Under +27.1% (74 bets)

NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Under +11.4% (85 bets)

NBA Threes Over — AVOID −15.1% (91 bets)

NBA Rebounds Over — AVOID −6.5% (96 bets)

Strategy: Selective play. Focus on proven prop types shown above.

BetParx

+0.5% ROI

2,281 bets · 50.4% win rate

NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Under +19.5% (64 bets)

NBA Threes Under +16.4% (68 bets)

NBA Threes Over — AVOID −13.5% (69 bets)

MLB Strikeouts (P) Over — AVOID −8.1% (123 bets)

MLB Total Bases Over — AVOID −6.7% (410 bets)

NBA Rebounds Over — AVOID −5.9% (83 bets)

MLB Home Runs Under — AVOID −5.9% (52 bets)

Strategy: Selective play. Focus on proven prop types shown above.

Hard Rock Bet

+0.1% ROI

2,365 bets · 50.6% win rate

NHL Shots On Goal Under +63.2% (22 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Under +35.0% (81 bets)

MLB Hits Allowed Over — AVOID −37.3% (58 bets)

MLB Earned Runs Over — AVOID −32.8% (52 bets)

MLB Earned Runs Under — AVOID −17.2% (38 bets)

MLB Hits Allowed Under — AVOID −11.1% (77 bets)

MLB Strikeouts (P) Under — AVOID −8.4% (132 bets)

MLB Total Bases Over — AVOID −8.1% (447 bets)

NBA Assists Under — AVOID −7.6% (97 bets)

Strategy: Selective play. Focus on proven prop types shown above.

Caesars

+0.1% ROI

1,383 bets · 52.4% win rate

MLB Outs (P) Under +27.7% (47 bets)

NBA Points Over +11.1% (27 bets)

NBA Points Under — AVOID −18.5% (139 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Over — AVOID −18.0% (57 bets)

NBA Rebounds Over — AVOID −12.3% (44 bets)

NBA Threes Over — AVOID −9.4% (42 bets)

NBA Rebounds Under — AVOID −7.4% (66 bets)

Strategy: Selective play. Focus on proven prop types shown above.

BetMGM

−0.2% ROI

4,609 bets · 50.9% win rate

NHL Shots On Goal Under +76.3% (20 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Under +25.0% (47 bets)

MLB Hits Allowed Under — AVOID −10.4% (144 bets)

NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over — AVOID −7.0% (25 bets)

NBA Rebounds Over — AVOID −5.8% (104 bets)

NBA Threes Over — AVOID −5.3% (78 bets)

Strategy: Below breakeven overall. Only play the highlighted edges.

ESPN Bet

−0.5% ROI

683 bets · 49.2% win rate

NBA Threes Under +22.2% (58 bets)

NBA Points Under +3.4% (183 bets)

NBA Assists Under — AVOID −17.7% (66 bets)

NBA Assists Over — AVOID −12.0% (45 bets)

Strategy: Below breakeven overall. Only play the highlighted edges.

✗ DraftKings

−1.1% ROI

3,722 bets · 50.0% win rate

NHL Shots On Goal Under +61.8% (20 bets)

NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Over +31.6% (25 bets)

MLB Hits Allowed Over — AVOID −24.8% (136 bets)

MLB Strikeouts (P) Under — AVOID −9.3% (294 bets)

NBA Pts+Reb+Ast Under — AVOID −9.1% (27 bets)

NBA Rebounds Under — AVOID −8.7% (199 bets)

MLB Hits Allowed Under — AVOID −8.2% (163 bets)

NBA Points Under — AVOID −7.7% (291 bets)

MLB Earned Runs Over — AVOID −7.5% (155 bets)

Strategy: Below breakeven overall. Only play the highlighted edges.

✗ Fanatics

−2.8% ROI

267 bets · 48.7% win rate

NHL Points Over +23.3% (38 bets)

NBA Points Over −6.9% (163 bets)

NBA Points Over — AVOID −6.9% (163 bets)

Strategy: Below breakeven overall. Only play the highlighted edges.

✗ FanDuel

−3.5% ROI

2,276 bets · 48.2% win rate

MLB Outs (P) Under +27.0% (95 bets)

NBA Threes Under +25.7% (100 bets)

NHL Shots On Goal Over — AVOID −73.9% (135 bets)

NBA Points Under — AVOID −9.4% (219 bets)

NBA Assists Under — AVOID −9.2% (129 bets)

MLB Outs (P) Over — AVOID −8.5% (87 bets)

NBA Threes Over — AVOID −6.7% (124 bets)

NBA Rebounds Over — AVOID −6.4% (180 bets)

Strategy: Avoid general betting here. Highly selective exceptions only.

✗ BetOnlineAG

−6.2% ROI

290 bets · 47.9% win rate

NBA Threes Under +24.3% (32 bets)

NBA Assists Over −4.6% (21 bets)

NBA Assists Under — AVOID −32.3% (29 bets)

NBA Rebounds Over — AVOID −22.2% (29 bets)

NBA Points Over — AVOID −12.1% (33 bets)

NBA Rebounds Under — AVOID −11.4% (25 bets)

NBA Points Under — AVOID −8.2% (48 bets)

NBA Threes Over — AVOID −5.4% (29 bets)

Strategy: Avoid general betting here. Highly selective exceptions only.

🚀 Priority Action Plan

      ✅ DO: The Core Edge Strategies
      MLB Outs (P) Under on Hard Rock Bet — 65.4% win rate, +35.0% ROI across 81 bets.
MLB Outs (P) Under on Caesars — 63.8% win rate, +27.7% ROI across 47 bets.
NBA Threes Under on BetRivers — 64.9% win rate, +27.1% ROI across 74 bets.
MLB Outs (P) Under on FanDuel — 63.2% win rate, +27.0% ROI across 95 bets.
NBA Threes Under on FanDuel — 62.0% win rate, +25.7% ROI across 100 bets.
Stick to odds 2.00 – 2.25 & 2.25 – 2.50 — the proven sweet spot. Higher odds have a strongly negative track record.

    

❌ DON'T: The Consistent Losers

NHL Shots On Goal Over (FanDuel worst: -73.9% ROI) — consistently underperforms across the dataset.
MLB Hits Allowed Over (Hard Rock Bet worst: -37.3% ROI) — consistently underperforms across the dataset.
MLB Earned Runs Over (Hard Rock Bet worst: -32.8% ROI) — consistently underperforms across the dataset.
NBA Points Under (Caesars worst: -18.5% ROI) — consistently underperforms across the dataset.
Avoid BetOnlineAG — structural negative ROI. Selective exceptions only if any profitable combo exists.

⚠ Disclaimer: This analysis is based on a 112-day data window (9 Mar 2026–28 Jun 2026) covering 22,352 graded bets at £100 stake each. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly. All figures are in GBP (£).